Diageo polls daily as to the degree of enthusiasm for each candidate, and there has been a steady upswing in enthusiasm among Democrats, nearly 90% of whom are voting for Obama, while Republican enthusiasm (with roughly the same support for McCain) is only at 50%; independents had been at 50% but dropped off to 46. To be more specific, high-enthusiasm voters are far more likely to be Obama supporters than McCain, by a 62-38 margin. Stories of luke-warm support from the Republican base for McCain had been circulating for months, some thought that had been stemmed by the announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. However, criticism of Palin from the right has been steadily growing, and may be turning up in these enthusiasm figures. It will be very interesting to revisit this a few days after the VP debate Thursday night to see if her performance, for better or worse, was able to change the degree of excitement McCain/Palin voters show for their ticket.
Rasmussen/Fox News published state polls in Colorado (Obama +1), Florida (tie), Ohio (McCain +1), Pennsylvania (Obama +8), and Virginia (Obama+3). What is significant to me here is that 1) this is Rasmussen, which underweights Democrats and 2) all five of these polls show a 3-5 point shift in Obama's favor over the last few weeks. Pennsylvania surprises me perhaps the least, as it tends to close strongly for the Democrat and is a union state. That being said, there's one significant difference this year from other presidential contests--perhaps because of the racial issue, this is less a right vs left battle than generational one--if only people under 50 were allowed to vote, it would be an Obama landslide; if only over 50, a McCain landslide. To me this argues that the generations that grew up after the civil rights struggles of the 1960s are much better adjusted to the idea of a black president and could well blunt a potential Bradley effect (assuming there still is one, and I've been shown some very persuasive work in the last week suggesting there may not be--thanks, Ken!). As long as I'm talking about it, there are some other state polls out in the last 24 hours--the usually very accurate SUSA has Florida a McCain +1, PPP (ehh) has North Carolina Obama +2, SUSA has New Jersey Obama +10 (and I'm surprised it's not more than that), the daily Morning Call tracker in PA is up to Obama +7.
Rasmussen also has a poll showing consumer confidence rising after yesterday's stock market cataclysm, which to my mind just shows how divorced from objective reality non-investors are on economic issues; if people are confident, it's because issues have not hit their pocketbooks YET. But what happens today has ramifications for next week, month, and year; if nothing happens, and the credit markets remain seized up, I say to those people who think this has nothing to do with them, good luck with that 2009 car loan, or mortgage refi, or credit card, or loan to modernize your gas station or store. Insitutitions being afraid to lend for extended periods greatly magnifies the effect of negative economic trends. So if you want to look back, don't look back to the market yesterday, look back to 1931. Enjoy.
Sometimes The Coin Lands On Its Side
The big news is, of course, the failure of the financial rescue bill yesterday. This one shouldn't have been a coin flip at all, but Speaker Pelosi managed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory by doing the one thing she could do to give the GOP representatives political cover for voting no at the last minute, giving a petty, snide speech which allowed them to run and hide. Well, as long as they don't mind looking like total wussies, that is. Double edged sword, though: they then showed their political instincts are no better than hers by gloating about it, showing in a press conference in Minority Leader Boehner's office that their feelings are easily hurt--uh, I mean, admitting to the nation that their switcheroo---which according to Boehner cost exactly--yes, exactly-- the 12 votes it would have taken to turn defeat into victory, and not a single one more or less, for those of you who dont' believe in coincidence--on the vote was a political ploy on their part. Guys, you won a sneaky victory--when you then tell the world how you sneaked into it, the sneaky part goes away, and you just look no better than anyone else. We knew this already in a more subtle sense. Oh, roughly a minute before the bill went down in defeat, a Republican Congressman from Texas whose name I didn't catch stood up and asked the acting speaker what it would take for a motion to reconsider, if by some chance there were a way to get him to reconsider (pronounced $$$) his vote.
I think we're seeing the candidates' personalities reflected in their responses to the failure of the bill. I only bring this up because it was raised by so many survey respondents when polled on the debate. Sen. Obama yesterday called for Democrats and Republicans to work together, Sen. McCain blamed the failure on Obama who, last I looked, 1) was not a member of the House of Representatives, 2) only attended the meeting last week after Sen. McCain invited himself in and by all accounts, largely Republican ones, disrupted the proceedings, and 3) did not pretend to suspend his campaign while actively campaigning, and 4) did not immediately go to the House party leader's office to strategize (or, Senator McCain, was that a tactical move? As a military man, honest to gosh, it's a surprise that you're the one who mistook the difference).
Yet, despite all that, there will be a bill later in the week that will pass. It may include some special things that certain Republican congressmen want; if those seem like pork, it will be even more embarrassing for Sen. McCain, who took credit in the press for the bill's passage yesterday morning before it went down and he blamed his opponent. And he wasn't even only speaking to a voter.
I do wonder, though, if Intrade or one of those organizations will take bets on the next Speaker of the House. Shouldn't be long after the new Congress convenes in January.
Quote of the Day must come from Barney Frank at the Democratic Press Conference, where he said of the supposed 12 lost GOP votes:
I don’t believe they had the votes and I think they are covering up the embarrassment of not having the votes. But think about this: somebody hurt my feelings so I will punish the country. I mean that’s hardly plausible. And there were twelve Republicans who were ready to stand up for the economic interest of America but not if anybody insulted them. I’ll make an offer: Give me those twelve people’s names and I will go talk uncharacteristically nicely to them and tell them what wonderful people they are, and maybe they’ll now think about the country.”
Anyway, I've ranted about the bill failure elsewhere , and I'll get around to posting that on http://trackingpolls.blogspot.com if anyone would like a look. Catch you tomorrow, and Go Twins!
Best,
John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day
In the larger view the major forces of the depression now lie outside of the United States, and our recuperation has been retarded by the unwarranted degree of fear and apprehension created by these outside forces
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