Note to Red Sox fans: if the Sawx win the pennant tonight, you are hereby ordered to cease and desist blithering, blathering, and/or bluthering about the Manny trade. In fact, even if they lose, they're a better team with Jason Bay in left, so deal with it.
Diageo/Hotline tightens by another point, but by taking a few votes away from Obama; McCain can't get past 41% in this one
Gallup bucks trend, shows gains for Obama, expanded likely voters model shows erosion for McCain and gains for Obama. Hmm.
GWU/Battleground is out for a Sunday drive
Rasmussen adds back the Obama point it lost yesterday, in a holding pattern, adds to Democratic weighting, now really doesn't look too much like a GOP poll at all, but that might be to add complacency to the Democratic ranks, given that it is a GOP poll at all...
R2K stays at a seven point Obama lead, with three very consistent single days
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby down to 2.7, and lead among independents cut from 16 to 8 overnight. You don't move eight points without something major happening, and nothing happened. Really nothing happened. Srsly.
And this is all why it's not over. Yet. I'm not being all panicky and stuff, but we're writing about public opinion polling here, not one's personal political instincts. Why, you ask, or would if I weren't being all rhetorical and stuff? OK. And again, I'm not saying McCain's going to win, I'm just saying, trying to gain an understanding of what may not be in the numbers I publish every day, that the proverbial fat lady is still just warming up in her dressing room.
1) Reversion to the mean. Stuff tightens naturally. Just does. Welcome to the world of the normal distribution. You want to go outside the bell curve, play the stock market (that's another argument entirely, but one I'm happy to have with anyone).
2) Many people vote for the person, not the issues, and when they get to the voting booth, more Americans are going to identify more with the old white guy than the inspirational black one. I'd hasten to add this is not cross-burning, but equally hastily say it's there all the same. A serious recession could negate this one (see below).
3) A little less panic. Although we're in a recession--get used to it, it's been here a while and it's gonna be here a while and the NBER will confirm that when they have a moment but right now they're texting their BFFs about the great sales at the mall they wish they had the money to go to--oil prices have dropped dramatically in the last couple weeks, which is most notable at the pumps where people can begin to afford a tank of gas without having to sell the car to pay for it. Now, I'd say this has more to do with the markets in general, slower consumption because of the aforementioned recession, and the collapse of a lot of speculators, but it's also curious timing, and timing that was called by more than a few sources several months ago to happen right before the election, giving a bump to the Republican candidate. Could be a lot of reasons. More than one at a time. The world gets complicated that way, you know. Really.
Powell's Endorsement Of Obama Might Move A Needle Or Two, A Little. Maybe.
Well, the biggest news today was not unexpected, but still will likely make quite an impact. As we'd discussed yesterday, Gen. Colin Powell, former Secretary of State and moderate but firm Republican, today announced on Meet The Press that he will be voting for Barack Obama. Powell gave a lengthy and thoughtful explanation as to how he came to his decision, which he reached with some regret as McCain is a longtime friend and someone he respects and admires. Before talking about his choice, he enumerated several issues the incoming president will face, notably the re-allocation of the military to better serve American interests and a crisis in education. Powell gave several reasons for his decision, most notably what he called a "narrowing" of the Republican party which makes him personally uncomfortable and feeling as though he's now no longer aligned with the GOP, the fact that McCain has not shown leadership and in fact seemed somewhat befuddled by the economic crisis, the tone of the McCain campaign, especially as it has descended into fear-mongering particularly with the recent robo-call campaign which has to be heard to be believed, and that he has been impressed with how Sen. Obama has grown over the course of the last two years, that he has shown an intellectual curiosity and willingness to expand, and that he has surrounded himself with knowledgeable people who can provide the strength in areas in which he is not expert. When asked by sometime McCain BFF Tom Brokaw about Obama's insistence on a timeline for Iraq withdrawal and how that ran counter to Powell's own statements on the ideal strategy, the General pointed out that the Bush Administration is at present working out a time line of its own with the Iraqi government so it was rapidly becoming a non-issue.
In a clear break with the Administration he served, Powell stated "I firmly believe that at this point in America's history, we need a president that will not just continue, even with a new face and with the changes and with some maverick aspects, who will not just continue basically the policies that we have been following in recent years." Powell also made clear his extreme disappointment with the choice of Sarah Palin as the Vice Presidential candidate, stating flat out that he does not "think she is ready to be President,which is the job of the vice president. So that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment Sen. McCain made." Presciently, I believe, Powell stated "I think we need a transformational figure. I think we need a president who is a generational change and that's why I'm supporting Barack Obama, not out of any lack of respect or admiration for Sen. John McCain."
It seemed to me that the decision was indeed arrived at with regret, that he would have liked to endorse McCain but found it impossible under the circumstances. As far as the wave of Republicans endorsing the Democrat in the last couple weeks, we all seem to forget that you can't agree with a candidate on everything, and that anyone who claims he does is probably incapable of independent thought (heck, there's even evidence that the husband of the Republican VP candidate disagrees with the Republican Party on the issue of Alaska statehood.). Three important states in particular have extremely high populations of active and retired military personnel: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. While we noted yesterday that only 12% of people in a Rasmussen poll said Powell's endorsement would influence them, let me remind the assembled semi-multitudes that 12% is rather a lot of people, especially at a time when considerably fewer than 12% are likely to be in the "undecided" column. It's not a stretch to suggest that Powell remains the most admired man in America, and I would say rightly so. It might be amusing to see who attacks him as anti-American.
Not Ready For Prime Time Governor
So she goes on SNL, which shows better humor than I'm still prepared to give her credit for (I'd note that when she gets laffs, it's usually at the expense of someone else); let's assume the reason she went was that she was, ummm, just following orders. But peoples of the left and the right, all y'all take a chill pill. It wasn't horrible, it wasn't great. And it's over. I smirked a bit, but other than the topicality mostly what I learned was that SNL still isn't funny any more. I smirked at the moose shooting bit in the Weekend Update rap, but honestly, this show should have hung it up decades ago and just came back every four years. Also, the next TV show, person, animal, vegetable, or mineral who inflicts Coldplay on me is going to get a 10 1/2 D foot up his, her or its tuchas. Perhaps this performance should be looked at more as an audition for her next job than anything else, presumably as a Fox News personality between, oh, November 5 and the start of the 2012 campaign season in April 2009. She had time to rehearse because there was this national security briefing for the candidates at the White House. Why not? See below.
Not Ready For Crunch Time Either, If You Ask The Current Administration
So there was this briefing at the White House for the candidates as the White House is looking to line up support for the negotiations with the Iraqi government to begin to cede control of military operations (file under timeline for withdrawal). The candidates and their running mates were invited to take part--let's count them, One...Two...Three...ummm... Hmmm. Curious. Someone wasn't at the table. The administration tries to pitch it half-heartedly that the other three are senators and on military oversight committees and the one not invited was only a governor. However, they had already said that the invitations were a courtesy to the next president, whoever that might be. Two other important senators got briefed, so there are 95 other senators who didn't get called to come to the tea party. Herewith an exchange that covers it, with embarrassed spokesman Sean McCormack:
Q: You called Senator Biden, you called McCain. Did you also call Governor Palin? McCORMACK: No. If you hadn’t noticed, she’s a governor. Not a senator or a congressman. Q: She’s a vice presidential candidate. McCORMACK: Right. Q: She also has extensive foreign affairs experience. (LAUGHTER) McCORMACK: Right. I explained to you the reasoning behind the phone call. Q: Maybe if this has to do with Russia, you would have called her.
Of course, that exchange is on the rabidly socialistic communist C-SPAN, so take it for what it's worth. And take it from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdC2HbRlxz0 Here's the story, from the AP: http://www.examiner.com/a-1643166~Palin_omitted_from_White_House_Iraq_troop_briefing.html?cid=rss-Politics
OK. That's enough. Go have lunch.
John
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