This is a little different today, as I'm going to be running around NYC all afternoon and won't be around by the time Gallup and Diageo wake up, stretch, and have a few cups of coffee, regular and a bagel with a schmear, so you're getting R2K and Rasmussen, and I'll shoot something out tonight if the other two have anything important to say (update: honest to gosh, they didn't). A bunch of state polling info that's worth discussing anyway, so that will fill up space instead.
Not a lot of movement today, as we're all in a sort of a holding pattern in advance of the Vice Presidential debate tomorrow (which is more likely than not to have minimal impact on the presidential polling), a resolution to the financial crisis. R2K remains flat at a +10 for Obama, though the daily is a bit lower than it has been the last couple days--as the single day components of their three day running tally have a margin of error of just over 5%, it's hardly worth reporting them, though they seem to get overplayed on dailykos.com. Whatever. Rasmusssen holds on to a six point Obama lead, this time at 51-45, rather than 50-44. Rasmussen also has data showing that Obama is more trusted on the economy, by a similar margin, 51-42, but this is the first time that either candidate in their poll has opened up as much as a nine point lead on the subject and the first time either candidate has broken 50% on the question. On the question of favorability, for the first time in Rasmussen, McCain's Very Unfavorable percentage has nipped the Very Favorable, while Obama's Very Favorables are 12 points higher than his Very Unfavorables. While both are viewed favorably by over 50% of survey respondents, this would tend to confirm Diageo's polling yesterday showing that Obama voters tend to be considerably more enthusiastic about their candidate than McCain voters are about theirs. Perhaps the VP debate can help McCain in that regard, as Gov. Palin's slipping favorability seems to have had an impact there (though not necessarily on their actual vote).
I've mentioned before that this race breaks down by age more than any other way. Some surveys show that among 65+ voters, McCain would win by mid-teens (though the R2K internal of 60+ voters only shows an eight point lead, another questionable data point), and among voters under 45, a similar tally for Obama. Given that Obama's stated positions are more likely in tune with older Americans' greatest concerns, particularly health care, than McCain's, one wonders if non-issue-based concerns come more (or for younger voters, less) into play. It's not a Bradley effect if you tell the pollster no, though.
Quinnipiac Battleground State Polls Highly Favorable To Obama, But Something Doesn't Sit Right
That being said, Quinnipiac has polls out this morning showing an eight point lead for Obama in Florida, a state whose population skews older at least in the southern half of the state, eight in Ohio, and fifteen in Pennsylvania. I find these numbers a little high. Other interesting Q poll findings, that only 10% in Florida say they have not yet made up their minds, 15% in Ohio, and 16% in Pennsylvania. Obama's net favorables in those states are also quite high, significantly above McCain's in each state. The economy is by far the biggest issue in these three state polls, and Obama is consistently seen by survey respondents as being better able to handle the crisis, and his response to the immediate panic of the last week or so is also viewed considerably more favorably. If I had more time today, I'd put it in a table, but I don't, so I ain't. The one issue I have is that they appear not to have released internals, so I can't talk about party or age weighting, which makes me particularly nervous in this campaign, and I find Obama's consistent significant leads among independent voters suspect. However, you can see the release showing all the results in a confusing, difficult to read format at http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1218&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
At the same time, SUSA, which has historically been much more accurate, has a poll released yesterday showing McCain ahead by one in Ohio. Interestingly, this poll shows no age discrepancy. I may have to think a while about what that might mean, other than that it might be an outlier or that the conventional wisdom may be (horrors!) simplistic. SUSA also has small McCain leads, but Obama rapidly closing gaps, in Indiana and, perhaps surprisingly, Georgia, where a reverse Bradley may be in play.
Call It A Bailout Just ONE More Time...
The financial rescue package (and I will personally deliver a painful noogie to anyone I hear calling it a "baliout" again, as that seems to be what got us into this mess in the first place is going to come back in the next few days, and here's how I see it playing out. Many of the honorable members, having put themselves on the record (and taken a quick wander through the halls of demagoguery) by voting no, providing themselves a talking point for November, will now vote yes to a very modestly tweaked version of the same bill. Senators, being inherently less buffoonlike, will just vote on the damn thing. I'm reasonably sure that when the men who created our system put it all together, part of the checks and balances approach of a bicameral legislature was not to ensure that the lower house was full of petty, vindictive, venal people looking out only for their next campaign, but it's rather worked out that way. Meanwhile, they continue to fiddle while Rome panics, and we could be one more major bank failure away from 1931.
Investors, Please Fasten Seatbelts
As far as the equity markets go, we're going to see massive hedge fund redemptions, especially as we're entering a new quarter today, so redemption requests probably thundered in yesterday, and while that money has to go somewhere, it's not necessarily back into stocks. Markets flew yesterday both on (with apologies to our feline friends) a dead cat bounce and rumors that a new plan will scrap "mark-to-market" rule. Youv'e got to mark your illiquid positions to SOMETHING, though, and the financial institutions "Trust us!" option is not what I'd consider more appealing.
Return Of The Cash-And-Carry Economy?
Whether an assistance plan passes or not, I would not be at all surprised to see the consumer credit boom come to a crashing halt, which could have the effect of reducing personal expenditures for years to come. Rather an old-fashioned concept, living within one's means, and presumably good for the long haul, but the obvious impact would be a secular slowdown in economic expansion as people stop spending money they don't actually have.
Both Sides Of The Street
In line with Sen. McCain's consistently saying that it's not the time to lay blame for the failure of the rescue plan but it's Sen. Obama's fault, the GOP yesterday managed to release two TV spots, one blaming Obama for the failure of this important piece of legislation, another blaming him for the passage of this horrendous piece of legislation. Admittedly, one was a party ad and the other was out of the McCain campaign, but we'll let it stand in place of a bizarre quote of the day (even the snippet from Couric/Palin where she seems to have said that she reads every newspaper on the planet as long as someone puts it in front of her--the editorial staff of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung will be thrilled).
Jokes You Just Don't Make Dept.
There is a series of short video clips of an interview with staff at the Des Moines Register, in which Sen. McCain makes his appearance at the first presidential debate look downright cheery (does he have a problem with being asked questions by women?). However, there's one offhand comment that someone might choose to take the ball and run with. I think it's a joke, but he doesn't actually smile or pause or anything. When talking about the bill and how it wasn't perfect, but it was still something, he goes on to start talking about what it would look like if he could have written it, and says, "If I were a dictator, which is something I've always aspired to be, I would write it very--a little bit differently..." OK, I really do believe you're joking, Senator, but there's a time and a place, a time and a place. A presidential campaign during wartime may not be one of them.
You can find it at http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=b959b1ca832e44b7543c0c1d3b9b6ef23903c7fc&maven_referralObject=873527229 then click on the choice for Economic Bill Failure on the right if you don't believe me. Or if you do. About a minute and a half in. It's a poor choice.
On which note, I'm off!
John
Well we may not have all our data, but we do have our Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day:
I’m the only person of distinction who’s ever had a depression named for him.
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