I'm sorry, there are reasons i'd really like to believe the R2K poll, as you all know who I'm voting for, but today's curious internal is that according to R2K, Obama gets 62% of the vote in the Northeast compared with 29% for McCain. The Northeast includes Pennsylvania, a large state which is running very tight. DC isn't exactly going to make up for that. If you want us to take your poll seriously, at least don't give the appearance of being quite so in the tank. An Obama net favorable of +29 compared with 0 for McCain beggars the imagination as well. C'mon, dewds, srsly.
Rasmussen continues to show a slight uptick in favorability ratings for both candidates, with Obama a few points ahead on favorables, but not releasing a net number, so it doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. They also show that the two candidates are in a dead heat among white women, a constituency that I would argue it would be impossible for McCain to win the election without. Obama now also, according to Rasmussen, has slightly more support among Republicans than McCain does with Democrats, but not enough either way to move the needle--if anything is important, it's just that for most of the year the pattern had been reversed. If there's anything I take away here, it's just that Sen. Obama is being viewed somewhat more positively by people who may not have been quite sure how they viewed him. Now, remember that that does not necessarily translate into a vote, but it's more likely to become one than a negative, anyway.
Diageo's debate poll shows, in addition to a significant Obama "victory", by 41%-24%, with 27% calling it a draw, both candidates scored over 50% when asked about the quality of their performance, though with a significant difference: Obama rated excellent by 23% and good by 44% more, for a total of 67% vs 30% negative, while McCain was rated excellent by 10% with 44% good, for 54% vs 44% negative. In sum, the result of the debate is about consistent with what weve' seen elsewhere, with 43% saying it made them more likely to vote for Obama, 33% for McCain, and 23% didn't know or couldn't say. Which, incidentally, probably means nothing, especialy as this is the only one of the polls where McCain is closing the gap on Obama on the issue of who is better equipped to handle the economy.
SOS Or No
The economic rescue plan continues to generate controversy in inverse relation to how well it's understood by those making the biggest noise about it. Gallup has a survey out today showing that the public is unhappy with the conduct of Washington in handling the plan. Yet, I'd still be willing to venture that most of this opinion falls on partisan ground. The only leader with more approval than disapproval in the study is, however, Sen. Obama, and that only by a three point margin. President Bush comes in for the worst drubbing, probably because he's seen as powerless, dilatory, and vacuous in his statements on the situation. Democrats are a bit more kind to Obama than Republicans are to McCain, though members of each party naturally think their candidate has handled the crisis brilliantly and the other has been little more than a buffoon. Independents generally disapprove of both candidates' handling of the situation by a wide margin. Honestly, i'm not sure how much sense that makes; first, neither candidate is in a position to put on the mask and cape and fly in to save the day singlehandedly. However, the response on the part of each couldn't have been more different, and if independent voters reject both by roughly a 2:1 margin, either it's a different third of independents that approve of each or they're going to be a lot harder to please than anyone thought. I'm writing this at about 12:30pm, before the vote, though as Gallup releases its presidential tracking poll at 1:00pm and Diageo/Hotline whenever they damn well please, we'll certainly have had a vote in Congress on the rescue plan by the time this series of nuggets reaches your virtual desk.
Source: Gallup
Anyone who doesn't have a good handle on the bill and is interested in not being part of the 97% of the populace that doesn't have a clue what the bill's about, Henry Blodget has a pretty good summary at http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/9/analyzing-the-bailout-what-s-in-it-anyway- . As I write this, House Minority Leader Boehner has given rather a stirring little appeal in favor of the bill. He was against it before he was for it, but still.
Trust Department
Rasmussen has an interesting poll relating to voter trust after the debate, in which Sen. Obama is now trusted more than Sen. McCain on ten major issues, though usually by quite a small margin. If this survey is accurate, though, the fact that voters trust Obama more on such issues as Iraq, Immigration, Trade, Taxes, Social Security, Healthcare, and Abortion could be significant, and very bad news for the McCain campaign, particularly given the fact that it's a Rasmussen poll. They do caution,and I would agree, that trust issues are volatile; and with two debates left, I certainly would not want to suggest that these numbers will hold through November. It's pretty clear that they're losing on narrative (remember Peggy Noonan's hot mic comments a month or so ago?), but if they're going to lose on the issues as well, there's not a lot left to campaign on. In a separate survey, a small majority thought Obama won the debate, in line with Rasmussen's typical less-Democratic weighting than other pollsters in this election cycle.
But Wait, There's More!
Turns out there's more Couric-Palin footage CBS hasn't aired yet. One hears it's not more flattering to the governor than what has already been shown. One will see, as the network asked questions to both candidates to air in conjunction with the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday. As a result, no Bizarre Quote Of The Day but there may be several from both running mates later in the week. Darn that CBS, ruining the comic relief.
Vote is going on now, and it looks sure to fail. Question in my mind was whether Speaker Pelosi gets the 100 or so Republican votes she was hoping for, and is able to live with Democrats who feel they'll lose their seats if they vote yes. That's now impossible, the GOP vote against is a major rebellion against Boehner if his pleas to vote yea were sincere, which we'll presumably find out later. Note to Sen. McCain: If you want to see what putting Country Above Politics actually means, ask the Republicans who voted yes. They've got guts.
A demain, les copains!
John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day Wages have increased, the cost of living has decreased. The job of every man and woman has been made more secure. We have in this short period decreased the fear of poverty, the fear of unemployment, the fear of old age; and these fears that are the greatest calamities of human kind. (Campaign speech, 1928)
No comments:
Post a Comment