Let's also remember that there will be no response to the VP debate in the tracking polls until at least tomorrow. So Rasmussen stays flat at 51-44, R2K remained flat at 51-40 (I think), Gallup moves up two points for Obama to 49-42, more in line with where it had been before the last few days, suggesting the recent tightening they'd shown was more likely to be noise than anything else. Voters continue to believe (quite rightly, I should expect) that the economy is the most important issue facing the nation at present, and voters who do tend to prefer Sen. Obama. Diageo widened to 48-42, which is only amazing because I was beginning to think they'd fallen in love with the number forty-seven.
A few interesting gleanings, but very few. Rasmussen reports that only 10% of survey respondents think the country is moving in the right direction. Favorables have flattened out. In a separate poll, 34% of respondents said the VP debate was very important to their vote. I'd like to meet their pharmacist. Gallup also has a poll suggesting independent women voters were nearly evenly split, with 45% for Obama and 41% for McCain; women with minor children, college educated women, and all income brackets showed a preference for the Democrat; women who attend religious services weekly preferred McCain, but those who attended semi-regularly preferred Obama. This was quite a large study of over 26,000 women, with a sampling error of 1%. Perhaps.
In the Diageo poll, Obama maintains his lead in economic, energy and health care issues, while McCain continues to lead on national security. Yawn. And the more yawns we get as these polls begin to mean something, the more it will look like we actually know what's happening. First time I've even been able to hint at that.
Mandatory VP Stuff. He Won. Srsly, Dewd.
OK, so we do have a couple instant post-debate polls, which we'll share and move on, though honestly I'd rather be writing about the funny stuff instead. A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters showed that 46% thought Sen. Biden won the debate, while 21% thought Gov. Palin did, and a curious 33% thought it was a tie. Stylistically they were so different I have trouble seeing how it was a draw, but what the hey. A slight majority of respondents felt their opinion of each candidate had improved (55% for Palin, 53% for Biden), while relatively few said their opinion got worse (14% for Palin, but only 5% for Biden). Palin's rating on knowledgeability improved from 43% to 66% (which does not apparently mean she can answer two-thirds of any question asked), but again Biden's grew more, to 98%, the kind of number you just don't see in these surveys (except for the next question). When aske about preparedness to be president, 55% now said Palin was prepared, compared with 39%, while 97% felt Biden was, up from an already stratospheric 81%.
Debate watchers who thought Biden won used words like "experienced," "knowledgeable," and " articulate," while noting his sincerity and compassion. Palin supporters, tellingly, called her "outspoken." "determined," and "on the ball," which is interesting as none of those things necessarily imply one knows what one is talking about, just that those opinions are expressed forcefully.
In a CNN poll, Biden won by a 51-36% margin, though Palin was seen as more likable by a similar margin. This speaks well for the American people, if anything, being able to separate who they'd like to hang out with from how they feel should be in charge of the country. Both candidates were thought to have exceeded expectations, Palin by a much greater margin, which should not surprise, as I believe expectations were too low for her in the first place. Biden was seen as being better at expressing his views, by a 52-36 margin, which I would think reflects the fact that Sen. Biden generally answered the questions, while Gov. Palin for the most part did not. The question of who is qualified was much more significant in the CNN poll, with 87% saying Biden was qualified, compared with 42% for Palin.
So What Happened?
Well, about what I said. He didn't go for the kill, or go off the deep end. She got folksy, used the word "maverick" umpty-nineteen times, and phrases like "darn tootin'" and "shout-out" that are probably inappropriate in this setting. She also kept trying to channel Ronald Reagan ("city on a hill," "there you go again," and a couple other times) without, in my opinion, coming remotely close to pulling it off. Reagan was able to be folksy, inspiring, and presidential at the same time, and the American public was enthralled. Gov. Palin can only do folksy. She also thinks that certain expressions and phrases originated with Reagan; he knew who he was quoting. Governor, you're no Ronald Reagan. Come to think of it, if anyone in this campaign is, it's Barack Obama.
Gov. Palin tried to turn her unwillingness to answer questions into a positive, which appeared to clang loudly as it dropped from a height onto a metal floor. Saying you won't answer other questions from the mainstream media but instead will talk straight to the people isn't a great strategery; the last guy who did that was Jimmy Carter; how's that working out? Attacking the media never works, especially as you're doing it through the very media you're attacking. Telling the right you support any rights at all for same-sex couples takes some guts, even if you don't support enough of them, but like admitting the existence of a constitutional right to privacy yesterday, I expect she'll pull back on it later and revert to a policy of silence, as she did with the whole newspaper thing (c'mon guys, think she really hasn't been briefed on international affairs out of the NY Times and WaPo? She just couldn't admit it to the extreme right who makes a fetish out of not reading the only newspapers that provide actual information on the world scene. Feh.).
The McClellan/McKiernan thing is more amusing than anything else, but if you're going to get a general's name wrong, at least use the name of a winner. Dwight David Hickenlooper is pissed about this.
Take A Michigander At This
Are the Republicans really conceding Michigan? They claim to be closing up shop, pulling advertising. This was supposed to be a competitive state for the GOP, and leaving now implies that the campaign knows that the economy is changing the playing field dramatically, and at the worst possible time for them. Stay tuned, especially to Michigan stations.
Clinch Mountain Hearts Barack
81 year old bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley has recorded a radio spot running in his home ground of Southwest Virginia, where he still holds god-like status, as he does in the adjacent areas of North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. They may not care much for politicians down there, but the Stanley Brothers are another matter entirely. I also, elitist northeasterner that I am, hadn't realized that anyone had pronounced it "Virginny" since Stephen Foster's day. If you're an Obama voter, it's worth 30 seconds of your time at http://e1.video.blip.tv/1040005601740/Tpmtv-ObamaRadioAdRalphStanley827.mp3 . If you're not, you'd probably rather pretend this didn't happen. Nobody's a bigger deal in that part of the world than Ralph.
Bismarck Said Laws And Sausage For A Reason Dept.
Speaking of funny stuff, the House is, as I write,four minutes away from passing the new, pork-laden version of the rescue bill. As I had suggested, those who voted against can now go back to their campaigns and bloviate about the principled stand they took before a better (money for their district) bill was created, which, while still not perfect, was acceptable and it's time to put country first blah blah blah. Thank you, thank you.
Is there a ballgame on yet? Go Rays!
John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day (Pinch Hitter Edition)
Herbert Hoover is taking a day off. We have a quote today from General McClellan's opponent in the 1864 presidential election, a fellow named Lincoln, and particularly apposite considering last night's gaffelet:
"If General McClellan does not want to use the army, I would like to borrow it for a time."
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