In really important news, I'm going against the grain (and the 1969 Mets/2008 Rays comparisons I've made myself--apply for details) and pick the Phillies to win the World Series. Unless they lose. Oh, and if I offended any Red Sox fans the other day with my comment about Manny and Jason Bay, my humblest apologies. No Red Sox were harmed during the making of this note.
ABC/WaPo steady at nine yesterday
Diageo/Hotline flat on absolutely no news, and let's keep it that way
Gallup closes a bit, but it's still the same range, not breaking out either way
GWU/Battleground widens by a point, but a two point Obama lead is really only marginally less rational than one
Rasmussen opens to a six point Obama lead, but it's been in a four to six range for a while, state polls showing 9 point McCain lead in WV, 11 in SC.
R2K takes a point off McCain, lead now 10, nothing much to say, seems about in keeping
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has managed to go from a 2.7% lead two days ago to 5.4% yesterday to 7.9% today to 9.6% today; still on track for a 40+ point win .Puh-leeze.
Fox Poll Makes Sense, AP Poll Visibly Trumped-Up
In non-dailies, Fox has a new poll with a 49-40 Obama lead, up from 46-39 two weeks ago. All the usual things apply, as far as issues of change, economy. 35% say Colin Powell's endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Obama, while Fox managed to find 25% who said it would make them less likely; as there wasn't an approval poll on Powell anywhere in the country that had him anywhere near a 25% disapproval, that's odd. There's an AP/GfK poll out also that you may hear about, but it's weird. 10 point lead among registered voters but only one among likelies? Issues questions dramatically favor Obama, but when they take 27% of the total survey off to create their "likely voters," the lead evaporates. Internals show that they take younger voters down to well below the 2004 levels, when it's much more likely to be well above. There are others. It's about the worst poll I've seen in terms of data mining, and I look at IBD/TIPP every day. Fuggedaboutit.
They Call It Pew Because It Stinks For McCain
But seriously folks, it's actually a little unrealistic, I think. The Pew Research Center does have a new poll out showing a 14 point Obama lead, 53-39 among likely voters. I don't really remember seeing McCain under 40%, and this is actually up seven points from their poll a week ago, which argues for outliers somewhere. Pew is, however, a nationally known and well-respected service, and you'll hear about it in the news. On the issues, though, about what you'd expect, Obama wins on the economy by 21 points, 53-32. They're noting a widespread loss in confidence in McCain, with many more voters having doubts about his judgment--41% say he has poor judgment, while 20% say so about Obama. Here's one big difference between this poll and others--McCain is generally viewed with more enthusiasm by his base in most polls, while in this one McCain voters actually find their own candidate less inspiring, while 71% find Obama inspiring; he wins on all the usual character questions as well, which can't be a surprise. Looking at what I can find on internals, I do see this poll includes cellphone users and a 19 point Obama lead among independents. Also, McCain has lost support among white men and evangelicals--we see polls that go both ways on those demographics, and I don't know that we can trust either. That being said, this poll actually probably underrepresents younger voters, who are Obama's strongest constituency, and overrepresents seniors. I don't understand the party ID weighting, though--while I'm good with 37% Democrats and 31% GOP, Independents are only 28%, leaving 4% who wouldn't say. It's not reasonable to expect, but that whole 4% could be in the Obama camp, and skew the party weighting as a result. I'm just playing devil's advocate on it because I don't think 14 is quite right and we should find reasons to understand it. Here, you try it: http://people-press.org/report/462/obamas-lead-widens
NBC Poll: ZOMG! Palinmania Is Like, Soooooo Last Month, Obama Cements The Center
New NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out last night, showing the mandatory (but still I feel slightly overstated) 10 point Obama lead, 52-42, up from 49-43 two weeks ago; there is, however, evidence that last week's tightening of the numbers in favor of Sen. McCain is over, at least for the last couple days. This poll shows what we've been seeing mounting evidence for: Barack Obama is winning the center. A 12 point lead for Barack Obama among independent voters is about in line with what we see elsewhere, but it's significant that he retains a 12 point lead among suburban voters, a four point lead with white women, and perhaps most importantly of all, a six point edge, 50-44, among Roman Catholics. Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the poll along with Republican counterpart Neil Newhouse, suggests that what we're seeing is people's general high comfort level with "who is Barack Obama." I think that all the other polls we've seen in the last week say the exact same thing, which also implies that the McCain attack strategy may have difficulty gaining traction even if it moves into an entirely more vicious stretch run.
On the issues, it's also all about comfort. Obama has a 39 point edge on health care, 21 on the economy, 21 on the mortgage and housing crises, 17 on dealing with the Wall Street crisis, 14 on taxes, and 12 on energy. McCain has a 20 point edge on who would be more likely to catch bin Laden (remember, he's the one with the double secret plan to do it, but we'll only hear it if he's elected) and a five point edge on handling Iraq, a slim 4 point edge on strong leadership qualities. Obama has a 30 point advantage in "offering hope and optimism," 20 points on improving America's standing in the world, and perhaps most importantly of all, a gigantic 20 point edge on having the right temperament to be president. Enthusiasm is also a big issue, though I believe that last week's McCain bump was more about the red getting redder than people falling of the fence into his camp; 52% of Obama voters say they're excited to vote for Obama, while 26% of McCain voters say they're excited about him. 48% say they have confidence in Obama as Commander-In-Chief, compared with 50% for McCain (incidentally, this I've found to be a very good guide as to whether the poll has a party lean); a month ago it was 42-53. 56% say they are confident that Obama would do a good job as president, while only 44% say that of McCain. Where this poll may actually show a GOP lean is that 55% say Obama shares their background and values, compared with 57% who say that about McCain; in other polls, Obama usually wins by a long shot, largely because McCain's score is not nearly as high as this.
The single biggest negative for McCain, and again I would say this is in line with other surveys, but a bit more explicit, is Sarah Palin. 55% now say she is not qualified to serve as president, and her net favorables have turned negative, which we don't see much of in polls without a Democratic house advantage. It's a fairly significant -9 in this survey too, down from +20 when she was chosen. So what we see here is voters liking Barack Obama more as they get to know him, and Sarah Palin less as they get to know her. When they get to know her expense account I rather think old-style Republicans will like her even less.
Ecclesiastico-Political Side Note, RC Division
The question of whether the abortion issue, promoted (with dubious legality if you want to remain tax-free) by the RC church, now sits as one important issue among many is an interesting one. I'd note a few items; first, that issues of social justice and anti-war sentiment are no stranger to the church, though during the papacy of John Paul II, parish priests were largely instructed to talk about abortion at quite literally every opportunity (and if you want to see a real wedding buzz-kill, watch some inarticulate local cleric frothing at the mouth about the baby killers in between vows), and some bishops stepped way over the line by making pronouncements that you were committing a mortal sin by voting for a pro-choice candidate. There is much less of this talk today, though it still exists. I'd point out two things there: first, we're in a recession and people need to know who's going to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, etc, which actually gets a lot more play in the bible. Additionally, there's a new sheriff in town since the 2004 election, and Benedict XVI may have, in my opinion, a much more nuanced view of the world than his rather more black-and-white predecessor, while still being no less staunchly anti-abortion. If you're going to make something a make-or-break issue during a recession and financial crisis, most people are more likely to make it about how they're going to get by this winter.
You don't hear as much about the abortion issue this year, and there's a simple reason for it. When you're in a recession and you try to fight a one-issue campaign on an issue that isn't the recession, you lose. We'll see if you can win with a no-issue campaign.
You Heard It Here First Dept.
We've been talking for a while about how this recession would be about jobs, and really no amount of money injected into keeping banks solvent would prevent companies feeling the pinch from laying off significant percentages of their work force. Also that it would be likely to happen very soon, along with September quarter earnings, as I believed the general tone of earnings would be bad and companies often soften the blow to investors by doing something happy like firing thousands of people. Well, that's what's happening here. Merck added itself to the pile today as the recession seems bad enough that people are even not refilling prescriptions (see, here's an example of how not having good insurance, much less no insurance at all, can, umm, well, kill you, so lets' think about that when we discuss health care coverage for all Americans, and especially all children.) The company announced it would lay off over 7,000 people, of which over 3,000 would be in the US. I'd be surprised if we didn't see unemployment move up to the 9% area by the time this is done, possibly even 10. (I don't count.)
So here's one reason for the NBC poll showing the good governor of what is the largest state in America (if you don't count forty-eight others) being a bigger drag on John McCain than George Bush. Apparently one of the ways you can tell which are the pro-America parts of the country is that they allow expense fraud and tax evasion, but it doesn't get in to the New York Post if it's a) the Republican running mate and b) true. According to the AP, Gov. Palin charged Alaska not just for staying at home, but for her children's travel (including one trip to see their father in a snowmobile race), though the $21,000 cost of this is dwarfed by the $150,000 the RNC spent at Saks and Neiman-Marcus to clothe the backwoods family in something that didn't involve bearskin. Curious choice during a recession. And the irony just drips, coming on the day when the New York Post had to retract its item claiming that Michelle Obama ordered expensive room service items at the Waldorf-Astoria (as if that were a news story, but the Post retracted it when presented with proof Mrs. Obama was not in fact at the Waldorf that night). Additionally, travel expenses for children on your business are not tax deductible, so there may be a little IRS issue looming. Frankly, she's looking more like a common political grafter ever day, and the question now becomes whether she's more likely to serve in the big house than the White House. Here, enjoy, and don't look yourself in the mirror if you're still supporting her: http://www.newsweek.com/id/165012
John Edwards, eat your heart out Dept: They've spent close to $5,000 on hairstyling for the Governor, making your measly $400 haircut look like a buzz cut from Angelo the barber across from the fire house downtown who takes bets on the Jets game if he knows you long enough. Obama campaign saying nothing so far about the clothing allowance, nor should they: enough Republicans are up in arms about it that they'll continue to be spitting mad through Election Day. Pat Nixon and her good Republican cloth coat are spinning in the grave.
Lying For The Lord (Or At Least For A Fifth Generation Cassette Version)
OK, this pro-America, anti-America, pro-God, anti-God crap has to stop, or you'll start hearing phrases like "Godless communists" again, plus it puts millions of decent, sincere believers in an awfully awkward position. The Homunculus Of The Day (TM), Rep. Robin Hayes of suddenly swing state North Carolina has admitted that his bizarre speech to a local crowd when he said that "liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God" was in fact his own bizarre speech. After making these comments (and I think that about 99.432% of you reading this would fall into the anti-American slacker failure atheist category, so enjoy it now because you're all going to h-e-double hockeysticks), Rep. Hayes chose how seriously he took his comments by using both the Third (Second if your'e Roman Catholic or Lutheran, but we can talk about that another time) and Ninth Commandment as a rolling paper and swearing he never said those things. Unfortunately for the Congressman, who has been around since the Witch of Endor was just a misunderstood high school girl wearing black and considering her first tattoo, reporters put stuff on tape these days (Congressman, if you don't believe me, ask Sen. McCain about that whole not knowing much about the economy thing and YouTube), especially when it's a reporter for a TV station where stuff tends to get, well, broadcast to the whole damn world.
OK, til tomorrow...
John
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