Seated comfortably? Then let's begin. It still feels mostly random, though the too-variable single day numbers in R2K have been closing up some the last couple days. Overall, for the three-day average, McCain picks up a point in R2K, Rasmussen remains flat. Diageo/Hotline narrows significantly, by four points to a two point lead, though I have reasons for thinking this an outlier based on one extreme day of polling yesterday, particularly the tally that on the question of who would better handle the economy, 42% vote for each candidate, which is significantly different from all the other national polls, even more Republican-leaning Rasmussen, which has a general poll showing Democrats with a 13-point advantage on economic issues (even among investors, the Democrats have a five point edge, which expands to 33 points among those who classify themselves as non-investors). The last time McCain had as much as 44% in Diageo was September 25, and you have to go four days earlier than that to find a day when Obama had as little as 46%. Gallup, on the other hand, shows Obama's lead widening to nine points, tying an all-time high. As far as the trends go, three polls are right in line with what they have been doing for the last two weeks (a fifth, which I have not been tracking due to concerns about the internals, actually opened up from a three to a six point lead today). A separate Gallup poll shows 82% of respondents saying it is a bad time to find a job; a year ago, that number was 56%. This is unlikely to be good news for the party currently in the White House--most notably, Republican pessimism about jobs grew from 57% in May of this year to 74% today. Either Diageo is, for the first time in the campaign, ahead of the curve, or it's an outlier. We'll see over the next few days.
If there are some variables in the near term, there's the debate tonight, featuring questions from undecided voters in a town meeting-style environment, and voter reaction to the Obama camp's first attempt at a stinging blow against McCain, the www.keatingeconomics.com web site. The McCain campaign has stepped up its guilt by association attacks on Obama, and it remains to be seen how much success Obama will have with his responses, that everywhere there's someone questionable in Obama's past there's someone or something considerably worse on the other side (befriending Wiliam Ayres when the two were teaching at the same school two decades after Ayers' 60s radical activities vs. the Palin's coziness with a secessionist movement that makes no secret its hatred of the United States, Jeremiah Wright vs Robert Muthee and John Hagee, Tony Rezko vs Charles Keating). My guess would be that the negative attacks from Sen. McCain will resonate at first, and then lose credibility--if he was going to engage in this particular sort of scurrility, he might have waited two or three more weeks.
Non-Daily Polls Showing Similar Trends
There are a variety of other national polls that have come out in the last couple days, which I'll mention here and then probably pick up again in a week or so to gauge debate reaction in surveys other than the daily trackers. Results now range from Obama +3, generally just within the margin of error, from CBS/NY Times and polling service GQR, to +6 from NBC and +8 from CNN. We'll revisit in a week, post-debate and tactical advertising shifts. Have a nice clean chart and everything!
State of The States
There's a lot of state polling out there the last day or two, most of it favorable to Obama. Rasmussen has new polls in Colorado (Obama +6), Florida (Obama +7), Missouri (Obama +3), Ohio (McCain +1), and Virginia (Obama +2, actually down a point from a week ago). Virginia shows a significant margin for McCain among white voters, 59-38, as well as a ten point advantage among men, compared with a 13 point lead for Obama among women, which may be the biggest state gender difference I've seen. SurveyUSA has polls in New Hampshire, which was considered a toss-up as recently as a week or two ago, showing a 13 point Obama lead, and a surprising 10 point lead in Virginia, confirmed by a 12 point edge in a Suffolk poll. Rasmussen's poll may be more appropriately weighted, and is rather larger, so their +2 may be closer than double digits. ABC/Washington Post has an Ohio poll with a surprising six-point advantage for Obama, but as I haven't found internals, I want to be careful with it as Rasmussen shows a one-point McCain lead; while Rasmussen tends to underweight Democrats, Ohio is at heart a fairly conservative state, with the exception of the solidly Democratic (and heavily African-American) Cleveland area. Finally, the Albuquerque Journal has a five-point Obama lead in New Mexico, which I do believe, particularly given solidly pro-Democratic trends in the Latino community.
Early Voting In Georgia Intense, Likely To Favor Obama In A Solid Republican State, Unless it's Really Really Realllllllly Intense
R2K has a state poll in Georgia, showing McCain with a seven point lead, but early voting has started and anecdotal reports have incredibly long lines particularly in african-american districts. Blacks make up fully 29% of the electorate in Georgia, and black voter registration is up considerably from 2004. It's also safe to assume that turnout will be significantly higher among black voters as well, though the white vote in Georgia may be split as widely as 75-25 for McCain, which speaks for itself. However, if african-americans can represent 32% of the vote in the state, which would entail a much higher turnout than in the past, to be sure, McCain's seven point lead would be a tie. I don't expect Obama to win Georgia but the mere fact that we're talking about it is significant.
Is It Really Worth It, Senator? Do You Really Need To Be President THAT Badly?
OK, now I'm just kind of angry. And a little frightened for America, for the first--and I hope last-- time in my life. As Gov. Palin in particular accuses Sen. Obama of hating America and our armed forces, responses among the hard-core base are troubling. At a recent rally in Florida, one attendee started screaming "Treason!" and another shouted "Sit down, boy!" at an African-American sound man working at the event. At another event, as Palin was inventing new charges against Obama (and if any of you can find any truth in them, I'll buy you an ice cream soda), one man shouted out "Kill him!" Neither candidate on the ticket says a word in response to this kind of violent, hateful--and in fact, more literally treasonous--agitation from their supporters. This note is particularly for the Republican readers--tell me, how comfortable are you with a candidate who allows incitement to assassination at campaign rallies to pass without a calming word, indeed steps up the rhetoric in response? Secondly, where else in history have you heard this sort of thing? It may turn a lot of rational undecided voters off; frankly, I hope to God it does. And if it came from the other side, I'd say the same damn thing, so don't even think about thinking about coming back to me with that. You know me better.
Nobody Cares, But I Promised
The tax geeks have done their work, and they agree: it's clear why the Palins released their tax records on a Friday afternoon. Links here to a couple other analyses, suggesting the Governor and her Dude (TM) may owe the IRS tens of thousands in back taxes for underreporting income. If nothing else, if any of you actually use H&R Block (and why anyone with a solid six figure income would is beyond me unless you need to score populist brownie points) should go buy a copy of TurboTax instead next year. http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/10/tax-profs-agree.html
OK, I can feel this petering out rapidly, so on to the debate. It's going to get ugly, radical traitor-wise. Will the American people buy tenuous connections to ex-radicals and blatant, clearly documented untruths about support of the armed forces? Will they choose to remember the last time greed fueled by elimination of regulation (thanks, Sen. Gramm) nearly brought down the US financial system? Both? Neither? Don't touch that dial!
Oh, and Chuck Hagel's wife just endorsed Obama, Chris Buckley seems to be doing the same, and Peggy Noonan suggested that McCain and Palin's problem is that "they're not big enough for the moment." Well, who needs real conservatives when you've got, um, uh, well...
And again,
John
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