October 4 Daily Polling Roundup, All Your Base Are Belong To Us Edition

First day of post-VP debate results are trickling in to the national trackers, and as expected, you can't really tell anything from them. R2K moves up a point for Obama, Rasmussen a point for McCain, Diageo takes a point off McCain, and Gallup gives the Democrat another point as well. Tomorrow, with another day of what I expect will be not a lot of movement from the VP debate, we'll have graphs. The excitement never stops, I tell you.



Not a whole lot of detail either, though Diageo tends to do very short releases on weekends, as I assume the pollsters have been busy consuming the sponsor's products since Friday night. Rasmussen in its release makes a point I mentioned yesterday, that the stability of the results as we're now exactly one month from Election Day begins to make it a seriously uphill slog for the McCain campaign. By no means impossible, I hasten to add, and the news from Thursday that the campaign was pulling out of Michigan to devote resources elsewhere dovetails with the news that it would be focusing nearly all its advertising spend on negative ads. While it's not easy at this point to recall any positive ads the campaign has run, I would expect things to get even uglier in the next few weeks, and I'd be vigilant for subtle racially motivated messages. I should think this would particularly be a concern in sensitive southern states like Virginia and North Carolina which are suddenly in play. If we start seeing ads such as the ones that ultimately cost Harold Ford his House seat in Tennessee, remember just to be disgusted, not stunned.

I'm still having issues with some of R2K's results--can women really be preferring Obama by 26 points? Independents by 12? If so, there are 49 other states the McCain campaign should consider closing down, but I don't buy it. One figure that has been dead steady in their internals has been the Latino vote, at 67-21 Obama. Given what we've been hearing from states like New Mexico, this is a possibility, and if so, a serious one for the GOP, which had been counting on inroads in the Hispanic community.

Some state polls have been released in the last day or two, generally but not exclusively favorable to Obama, and a VP debate poll from generally reliable SUSA in Ohio that calls it a draw, though gives Biden a significant win on understanding the facts and issues and cites Palin as a highly polarizing figure, energizing both her base and the opposition so providing rather less of a net benefit than many had first assumed. Curious sort of draw, but there you have it. SUSA also has a statistical dead heat in Minnesota which, if not an outlier, is reason for some concern for the Obama camp, though McCain has been outspending there by a 2 or 3 to 1 margin recently; the Obama camp can also redirect some resources and pick up their slack there, and it will be interesting to see how things evolve over the next few weeks. Polls in CO, NH, PA, NV, and WA were all good news to the Obama campaign; I'm still not sure how much attention to pay to the daily Morning Call tracker in Pennsylvania, which has been pushing Obama up a point nearly every day since it started and now shows him up 10, but the site is great if you wake up on a crisp fall Saturday morning and want to find a tag sale in the greater Allentown area.

Les Jeux Sont Faits
Rasmussen has their own alternative to intrade, which points to a 68% chance of an Obama victory (considerably lower than the fivethirtyeight.com aggregation of 84%, but it also moves much more slowly and is more subject to the vagaries of people who like to bet on political campaigns). These have always trailed poll aggregators, and it will be interesting to see how or if they converge by the time Election Day stumbles along.

Party Favors
R2K does show stability in one place, as it appears that Sarah Palin's net unfavorables have stalled out; remember, her numbers have always been lower than anywhere else on Democratic-weighed R2K's poll. Biden's have, however, climbed over the same period; I would think that after the debate they would both move up somewhat, as Gov. Palin's base, however upset they may be with her (see below) takes comfort that despite the staggering number of inaccuracies in her responses, she by no means embarrassed herself (as long as you don't count inaccuracy and mendacity embarrassing). In all polls, though, however weighted, Sen. Obama has a signficant net favorables advantage over Sen. McCain, whether that's the nearly 30 point edge in R2K or six points in Rasmussen or anywhere in between.

Wait, Did You Say The Base Was UNhappy with Palin?
Yup, and for actual reasons and stuff. Here's why, and I'm not making this up, promise. Ask a hard-line ideological conservative if you disagree.

1) In the Couric interview she stated she believes in a constitutional right to privacy. The far right does not--Robert Bork was whacked on his Supreme Court nomination in the 80s because of this. They believe rights must be enumerated in the constitution, not implied.
2) She said she does believe in benefits for same-sex couples. The far right does not.
3) She misstated McCain's position on homeowner protections. They're totally freaking out about this big time. See: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-misstates.html

Friday Afternoon Is A Busy News Time, Right?
Gov. Palin's tax records have been released, a few days earlier than planned--late Friday afternoon. I do stats and polling and baseball and music and stuff--the tax nuts will go to town on this; I'll report if there's anything to report. Many are wondering about the taxability of the travel per diems she took for working at home; a Palin spokesman claims it's not taxable income. One former IRS Commissioner thinks while the state can reimburse however it pleases, it's the federal government's decision to decide what is taxable income rather than the wage-earner's. He also questioned whether envelopes are being pushed on business deductions for First Dude Todd's fishing and snowmobiling, considering the very modest income those provide, which seems like a fairly minor issue. Still, one wonders why it was dumped out after the close of business on a Friday. We're still waiting for full medical records from McCain (elderly dude with four separate incidences of melanoma) and Biden (brain aneurysm many years ago).

OK, it's a beautiful early autumn day, and I'm going back outside now. Don't stay in and stare at the screen all day; go play with your friends.

John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day
I am willing to pledge myself that if the time should ever come that the voluntary agencies of the country together with the local and state governments are unable to find resources with which to prevent hunger and suffering ... I will ask the aid of every resource of the Federal Government.