October 24 Daily Tracking Poll Update, You Knew It Would Come To This Edition

Well, seems like the trend is certainly towards stasis, or even a slight tilt back towards Sen. Obama. CBS poll has a 13 point Obama lead, probably too high. Markets cough up a bigger hairball pre-open than my cat did at roughly the same time, but making valiant attempts to rally. More Republicans endorse Obama, including Scott (not the General, he was a Democrat) McClellan (people really get annoyed when they find out they've been lying for years), GOP former governors Arne Carlson of Minnesota and William Weld of Massachusetts, and several of Barry Goldwater's grandchildren--back story there is that while Sen. McCain claims the late Sen. Goldwater as a hero of his, the families have a bit of the Hatfields and McCoys about them, and Goldwater spokesgranddaughter hints at unsavory facts she'd rather not disclose. Even a McCain advisor, Charles Fried, votes for Obama after asking his name be removed from list of advisors, noting choice of Sarah Palin as a prime reason. One GOP spokesman launches an immediate attack against Sen. Obama for "visiting grandma." Of course, if one is not born of human parents, the idea of family is a shade foreign. Looks like a saint compared with the young female McCain supporter who claimed to be mugged and sexually assaulted by a big scary black man because of her McCain bumper sticker; she has now confessed to making it all up. McCain's strategy of the day is to blast the Bush Administration as if he were now playing to the left of Obama; Bush administration doesn't take it lying down and anonymously blasts McCain campaign for disorder and poor communication. A new SurveyUSA poll now shows Elwyn Tinklenberg ahead of future ex-Rep. Michele Bachmann by three; more below so I can say Elwyn Tinklenberg a few more times. Nouriel Roubini looking towards panic selling and a possible shutdown of the equity markets, but he's an old spoilsport anyway. Who has of course been the only one who's nailed this from the get-go, leaving aside my monthly fund commentaries from the second half of 2007 (ahem), but we'll do more on the economy over the weekend. As long as I'm patting myself on the back, nice to see everyone else beginning to talk about how Gov. Palin's 2012 Presidential run began a week or so ago, which may explain the New York Times report that her makeup artist was the campaign's highest-paid employee the last two weeks. I'm not saying a word.

Most importantly of all, though, whether you're Republican, Democrat, or Independent, Senator Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, could use all our prayers. "Without going through the details too much, she's gravely ill. We weren't sure and I'm still not sure whether she makes it to Election Day," Obama told ABC's "Good Morning America" in an interview broadcast Friday. She's got mine.

ABC/WaPo holds to 11 point lead with no signs of real motion, McCain's age cited as bigger negative factor than Obama's race
Diageo/Hotline opens up to a seven point Obama lead; nearly tied among male voters
Gallup moves slightly Obamawards, separate poll shows Jewish voters not buying the Arab terrorist spiel, supporting Obama nearly 3-1
GWU/Battleground still three, but they seem to have changed yesterday's lead to four after the fact, so go figure. Honestly, I'm pretty sick of these guys, but at least it's not IBD/TIPP.
R2K widens back to 12, had narrowed to 7 five days ago, still concerned it leans a little too far left, but 10 point lead among independents seems about right (see Zogby if you dare)
Rasmussen holds flat with yesterday at 7, only a three point McCain lead among men, while Obama leads with white women by 3
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby closes by nearly two points, but still a 10 point Obama lead, with a 26 point lead with independents and a lead among Roman Catholics, how the lead is only 10 is amusing math



Gallup has a few interesting items beyond their regular poll. Enthusiasm seems high, with a poll showing both Obama and McCain being among the most popular candidates this late in an election since they started keeping track. Favorables for both are probably a bit too high, though, so take it as you will. Probably more importantly, McCain had been making a pointed play for the Jewish vote, if there is such a monolith, by demonizing Obama as a radical Muslim who is anti-Israel and close to terrorists. In June, Obama led McCain by 62-31 among Jewish voters according to their own poll; as Obama has become much better known over the last few months, he has put paid to those rumors and expanded that lead to 74-22, with a five point spike in October alone. Oddly, according to this survey, older Jewish voters actually prefer Obama by a larger margin (74-19) than younger (67-29). This may speak to a modest and gradual erosion of the traditional identification of Jews with the Democratic party over the last twenty-five years or so, although the same percentage of the 18-34s in the survey consider themselves conservative as those 55 and up. Ultimately, this survey shows Jewish voters likely to vote for the Obama/Biden ticket about in line with Democratic candidates in prior elections.

Quick State Of The States
Lots of state data today, so let's move right in. Rasmussen has a Georgia poll, showing a five point McCain lead, down from nine earlier in the month. It's going to be a tough row to hoe, with 70% of white voters supporting McCain. Needless to say, Georgia is not 75% Republican. Early voting and African-American turnout will be the key here; remember 29% of Georgians are black. InsiderAdvantage actually has Obama up one in the state, with even less of the white vote, so they must be trying to extrapolate a greatly expanded African-American vote. There's also a Minnesota poll, but we can stick a fork in that one with a 15 point Obama lead. In North Carolina Rasmussen has McCain taking a two point lead again, after a three point lead early in the week and tie in their survey a week ago. Interestingly, for what it's worth, which isn't a lot, both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets have Obama as about a 2-1 favorite to take the state, which seems a little optimistic for the Democratic side for me. Montana State University at Billings has a home state poll surprisingly showing Obama ahead by 4 points in the Big Sky State, but with a large undecided component; hard to imagine that one turns blue, though with popular Democratic Governor and Senators, anything's possible. I'll just cherrypick a few more here, ignoring the states where one candidate or another is up in the 20s: the Miami Herald has a seven point Obama lead in Florida; of course, Sen. McCain is campaigning heavily in the state, and that's one I'm still uncertain of myself. SUSA has polls in Indiana showing a four point Obama lead, probably makes more sense than yesterday's Big Ten poll showing a ten point margin. In Kansas, SUSA has McCain up 10, which is no surprise, and a 12 point Obama lead in Pennsylvania, in line with other polls but much broader than the Obama campaign's internal polls, which I still think were "leaked" to make sure the base didn't go home to bed two weeks early. National Journal has a 13 point Obama edge in Wisconsin, in line with Big Ten's 12 point lead, and 10 in PA as well, also in line with everyone else. Oh, that's probably enough for now.

CBS/NY Times Poll Opens Further, Now 13 Points
A new CBS/New York Times poll shows Obama with a 52-39 lead, the same 13 points that their re-examination of respondents they first interviewed before the debates turned up. This is actually one point tighter than their prior poll a week ago, and shows a narrower Obama lead among independents. Only five percent say they're still undecided, and this would be a difficult gap to make up, in the absence of the proverbial October (or November) surprise, which does not include a Tampa Bay win in the World Series. Obama still holds a six point lead among independents, though at 45-39, there's still a significant undecided component to this segment. The usual criteria apply--62% say they feel personally comfortable with Obama, compared with only 47% for McCain; indeed 49% say they feel "uneasy" with the Arizonan, compared with only 34% for Obama, which argues that the McCain campaign strategy of demonizing the Democrat is falling on deaf ears. On the question of quality of campaign, a trend we've been seeing for weeks opens up even further--now 64% say McCain is spending more time attacking than explaining, up from 53% a month ago; only 22% say the same of Obama. While it's often been shown that negative campaigning works, the difference between the two is so great that it appears to have made people sit up and take notice. As usual, Obama is seen as the far better candidate on economic issues, and holds a vast advantage on the question of temperament, with 75% saying he has the temperament and personality to be president, while only 50% say McCain has. The two are about even on Iraq, but Obama holds another significant advantage on health care, with 69% of respondents having confidence in his ability to handle health care compared wtih only 41% for McCain. Finally, on net favorables, Obama is at +21 (52-31), while McCain is now solidly negative at -7 (39-46). John McCain has done a mind-boggling job of taking a sterling reputation (whether deserved or not is another question entirely), throwing it in the muck and stomping repeatedly; unfortunately for him, that reputation was his own.

The Palin Effect seems to hold here too, by the way, with net unfavorables at -9 compared with +23 for Joe Biden, even if he does open his mouth and let out a whopper from time to time, that's viewed as "Joe being Joe" while she's increasingly seen as clueless, mendacious, and now, with the wardrobe issue, venal. Obama has a nine point lead among men in this survey, which seems a little high to me right now. He's also got a ten point lead with white working class voters in this survey, another demographic widely viewed as a potential problem. At the same time, he only has 78% of self- described Hillary Clinton primary voters, but we're getting into a smallish sample of a sample at this point. McCain's most recent point, that he needs to be elected as a counterpoint to a massive Democratic majority in Congress, seems not to be well accepted by respondents, with a small margin agreeing. I'd point out that this strategy implies that McCain has thrown the RNCC under a bus, presumably a different bus from the one the RNCC is in the process of throwing him under simultaneously. Troublingly, though, over 30% of respondents say they know someone not voting for Obama because of his race. I don't want to go overboard with my suggestion that an Obama victory will cause a massive re-assessment of Americans' attitudes towards race; no vote is ever unanimous. I'm also concerned because while the base party ID difference is about in line with many polls, there's a weighted number also that dramatically overweights Democrats. Depending on where the weighted number is used, and the poll is unclear about that, the results could overemphasize the scope of Obama's support. This poll also may not weight by age, which would be curious.

Randy Bachman Clearly More Popular Than Michele
I'm delighted to point out that the BTO riff I stumbled upon yesterday generated significant positive comment. Reader Evan (how's that sound?) quite rightly pointed out that the future ex-Congresswoman "wasn't Lookin' Out For #1," and that "at the rate things are going she'll be ready to Roll On Down The Highway after Election Day." Another notes that the music teacher at the prep school that she and a couple members of the awesomely legendary band attended told them they wouldn't go far. Personally, I'd figured this had gone far enough, but now I'm prepared to Let It Ride, being the Free Wheelin' kind of guy I am. Question is, will Rep. Bachmann be willing (or, for that matter, even able) to Take It Like A Man on November 5? You know who will Take It Like A Man? Elwyn Tinklenberg.

How Low Can You Go?
OK, time for everyone to get a little sick to their respective stomachs. Are you ready? Then let's begin. So how long did you think it would be before some underevolved creep found a way to trash Obama for leaving the campaign to spend a couple days with his gravely ill grandmother? If your over/under was about an hour, then today's Homunculus Of The Day (TM) is just for you: future ex-GOP strategist Brad Blakeman, when asked about the $150,000 expenditure on Gov. Palin's wardrobe during a recession, immediately changed the subject, though I'm not sure if he's blaming Obama or his grandmother: "taking a 767 campaign plane to go visit Grandma. Forget about the energy that is wasted, what about the hundreds of thousands of dollars to take a private trip when this guy should be humping his bags on a commercial plane or taking a smaller plane. Taking a 767 of campaign money from people who could least afford it is more of an outrage in my opinion." MSNBC anchor David Schuster, who could not restrain his disgusted laughter, responded "That is one of the most valiant tries I have ever seen in this entire debate about Sarah Palin's clothing allowance."

Fox News EVP Suggests McCain Campaign Is Over If Girl Assaulted By Scary Black Man Is Making Story Up; Girl Assaulted By Scary Black Man Admits To Making Story Up
Yet, it gets even worse than this. Remember the horrible story yesterday about a young female McCain volunteer in Pittsburgh who was mugged and horribly beaten by a black man who took exception to her McCain bumper sticker after she had taken money from an ATM, even going to the curious extreme of cutting a backwards "B" in her right cheek? Well, the backwardness of the letter might have been a bit of a giveaway, because apparently nobody told her that a mirror image comes out in reverse. Today, the Pittsburgh Police Department, reported by KDKA, has announced that the young volunteer made up her story and that the woman, Ashley Todd (I wonder if Senator McCain will tell supporters to send emails to show their support for Ashley The Race-Baiter?), had taken a polygraph test and confessed to making up the story. The backwards B, the fact that there are actually video cameras at ATMs and the one she claimed to have taken money from had no record of her, and she changed her story as to whether or not she was sexually assaulted. Read all about it at http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08298/922564-100.stm?cmpid=news.xml and http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html. Fox News Executive Vice President John Moody commented on his blog that ""this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election. If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee. If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting." We won't mention that it was Matt Drudge's top story for a while, shall we? Nah. I wonder if Mr. Moody still believes the campaign is over. Check out the blog now before the ever-honorable Fox pulls it: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/23/jmoody_1023/

McCain Says Using Campaign Funds For Clothing Is....Bad?
In 1993, when there was a $200 Clinton haircut to be up in arms about, a certain Arizona Senator said "the use of campaign funds for items which most American swould consider to be strictly personal reasons, in my view, erodes public confidence and erodes it significantly." He specifically mentions clothing as one of the items that his proposed amendment to the Congressional Spending Limit And Election Reform Act Of 1993. Perhaps the difference is that this is a presidential election, and his amendment was only for congressional elections? Feh. You can find it on a bunch o' progressive web sites, with LOLZ galore, or in the Congressional Record. Srsly.

Meow!
There's just so much more, but there's way too much here. So for a quick look at the backbiting, name-calling, and brickbat-throwing going on between the McCain campaign and Bush administration, look here: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html. A few choice quotes:
“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

A House Republican leadership aide in an e-mail was no more complimentary: “The staff has been remarkably undisciplined, too eager to point fingers, unable to craft any coherent long-term strategy. The handling of Palin (not her performances, but her rollout and availability) has been nothing short of political malpractice."

Oh, and the New York Times endorsed Senator Obama.

See you tomorrow! Elwyn Tinklenberg.

John

October 23 Daily Polling Update, Scottish Enlightenment Socialist Wealth-Spreading Edition

We're going to start with the Quote Of The Day today:

It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.

The particular firebrand who is responsible for this bit of anti-American theorizing? No less than Adam Smith, on whose thought it is not too much of a leap to suggest modern capitalism was based and without whom it never would have existed in its current form (see John McCain quote at bottom). If the Republican platform is now to repudiate Adam Smith, it's difficult to see that there's any economic philosophy at all behind it. Of course, being from the Windy City, Sen. Obama is the one with ties in to the Chicago School (which, incidentally, is not known for producing communists). I went to the Reagan Library (named for the former President, who greatly increased the Earned Income Tax Credit) on a recent trip to California and took a few pictures. The GOP seems to have gone to the gravesite, spat out the word "socialist," and hawked a loogie.

Now, on to our show, which is a little different today because there was so much poll data in yesterday's, and some philosophical issues to go over here. It's definitely safe to say the tightening in the polls was zomg just so last week lol.

Let's make it clear I am not speaking about the campaign or the race, but the wheels seem to be falling off John McCain himself. Couple McCain gaffes at a rally in Pennsylvania show a tired, confused candidate saying he couldn't "agree more" with negative comments made about the people of the area, tripping over words to correct and then re-correct himself. Campaign ugly factor steps way up, with McCain mailing piece with the word "terrrorists" on front and a large picture of Obama inside. Gov. Palin agrees to release of medical records, leaving Sen. McCain as the only one who has not. McCain/Palin interview shows a team with zero chemistry. Palin's Paris Hilton-like clothing budget won't leave the news cycle, may end up getting more play than Troopergate; seems like just another bit of common or garden hypocrisy to me, watch for pictures of her juxtaposed with Time Magazine shot of Obama on phone with feet on table showing holes in soles of shoes. NRCC cuts off Michele "Joe McCarthy was a wuss" Bachmann's funding as Elwyn Tinklenberg (Elwyn Tinklenberg) raises a million dollars since her investigation comment and the DNCC matches. Obama camp intentionally accidentally leaks an internal poll of PA showing themselves with only a two point lead, not the double digit margin of independent pollsters(pollster.com, whose methodology I think is a bit simplistic, calls it 15, fivethirtyeight.com mathgeeks it out to just under 10); I'd call that a move to scare supporters out of complacency rather than incompetence. Obama off to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother; it will be very interesting to see if the GOP launches a new line of attack while he's at her bedside. Would be a poor choice in a campaign full of them.

ABC/WaPo opens to an 11 point Obama lead, but more wobbliness rather than any hard info
Diageo/Hotline flat but with fewer undecideds, unrealistically wide gender gap (Obama +17 with women, McCain +8 with men--could be the only way Palin is helping? Nah.), net favorables actually higher for McCain than Obama, which completes the argument for one really weird day in the small sample polling
Gallup tightens up but for no apparent reason, though they suggest there will be no influx of new voters
GWU/Battleground squeaks open another point for Obama, to three, but by taking one point off him and two off McCain--are more people undecided now than two weeks ago? Hardly.
Rasmussen, who I have come to trust more than the others, despite a slight GOP bias, opens up to a seven point Obama lead, the largest in nearly two weeks
R2K hangs steady at 10, you could dry your clothes on this trendline
Zogby now 11.9, I was actually only joking a few days ago when I said it was gaining 2.7 points a day from now til Nov 4, you know



John Zogby has a commentary, but it's nothing new, suggesting that Obama is connecting, but McCain is not. McCain is getting "lost in issues that are not in people's minds." There are "some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980." I still don't like the way his poll is set up, but any time one of the pollsters decides to come out and say exactly what I"ve been saying all along, I feel duty bound to present it to you. Zogby then goes on to defend his sample, pointing out high numbers of college-educated respondents, Hispanics, young people, and "more Republicans in our sample than anyone else." Well, it's possible he's right about all that, and it's also possible he's bragging about getting the demographics all wrong. A 29% edge among independents tells me something's screwy.

A few state polls, but more of the same. Mason-Dixon has a slight McCain shift in Florida, where the Senator now leads by a point. In Nevada, CNN/Time has Obama up by 5, and four in North Carolina, while a poll for local TV station WSOC shows Obama +2 in the Tar Heel State. CNN also has an Ohio poll with Obama +4; maybe I'm just twice bitten thrice shy, but I can't get that state out of the McCain column in my head. In an interesting split, CNN has Virginia with Obama +10 and Mason-Dixon just a two point lead, but that's a five point swing from his last McCain +3, and he tends to lag a bit, especially when a Republican is leading. A couple polls in Wisconsin explain why the RNC took their money out of the state, both with double digit Obama leads.

Big Ten and Quinnipiac, neither of whom I particularly like, have a bunch o' state polls this morning, pretty much massively favoring Obama. Big Ten has polls in eight states, all of which hold significant Obama leads. We're not too surprised to hear about a 29 point lead in Illinois, but raise our eyebrows at 10 in Indiana, 13 in Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, and 12 in Ohio. In fact our eyebrows are raised into a highly skeptical sort of shape. However, they also did a national poll showing a 9 point Obama lead, which is not out of line. Quinnipiac has a five point Obama lead in Florida, down from eight on October 1, a similar 14 point lead in Ohio, up from eight, and 13 in Pennsylvania, similar to the 15 point lead last time round. Quinnipiac finds that Obama is doing surprisingly well among white evangelicals in PA and OH, and winning Roman Catholics in those states. It's funny; the race has really changed from one based on age, which no longer applies, to one where religion may be the best predictor. If Obama wins Roman Catholics, this will not be a close race at all.

NBC Interview Truly Disconcerting, But I Wasn't Wearing Those Really Cool French Sunglasses WIth The Rose-Colored Lenses I Got In LA
I watched the McCain/Palin interview with Brian Williams, who I found reasonably deferential to the Senator. I had some serious issues with what I saw. First, it really looked like there was absolutely no chemistry between the two; Palin seemed like she wanted to be in charge of the process and McCain didn't seem terribly happy with that. Gov. Palin interrupted her boss several times in her usual forceful tone while he was speaking more softly; it really felt as though she were hijacking the campaign bus. Without turning this into a transcript of the interview and just keeping it my personal observations, it seems to me that one of the conservatives who has thrown John McCain under the bus is Sarah Palin, and one of the mainstream Republicans who believes Sarah Palin has brought down the McCain candidacy is John McCain. Gosh, this will be interesting if they win.

We've Said It Before: If It's A Single-Issue Campaign, Get The Damn Issue Right
The McCain campaign has moved on. The current meme of the week is "Socialism." It's not really working for a variety of reasons: first, Obama's plan is not socialism, especially in light of the financial rescue plan that is not too far away from the state seizing the means of production; second, most people sort of liked the New Deal, though this doesn't go remotely as far (and many others spent the next 50 years screaming "socialism" about it); finally, when a campaign is about a single issue, you'd better be sure that your criticism of your opponent doesn't marginalize the issue, or you'll marginalize yourself. Starting with "fundamentally strong," moving on to "turn the page on the economy," and now ridiculing Obama's tax plan when your own contradicts not Karl Marx but Adam Goddam Smith, may not be the best way to approach the issue.

Bachmann Affair Turning Into Overdrive While Elwyn Tinklenberg Is Taking Care Of Business; DNCC Says "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"
This is a lot more important than one crackpot Congressman, and I think the Republican Party is doing exactly the right thing here. It has been reported that the NRCC has cut off ad spending for Michele Bachmann in light of her comment to Chris Matthews that Congress needs to be investigated for anti-American sentiment. Now, this is not the first time that she's done something loopy; trust me, I use the word "crackpot" advisedly. Remember, she

--attached herself to an uncomfortable President Bush after the State of the Union like a crazed teenybopper trying to tear out a bit of her idol's hair and wouldn't let go til she kissed him on the lips, --later mused to an interviewer on what kind of frozen custard the President of the United States orders, --was photographed hiding behind a lamppost spying on a gay rights rally (the stories say bushes, but trust me, I'm looking at the picture, it's a lamppost. Problem with that is that lampposts are really really narrow and provide unsatisfactory cover for anyone much wider than, say, Victoria Beckham), --explained that Iran would be partitioning Iraq to create the "Iraq State of Islam, something like that" in the "western, northern portion," which she then retracted either because she was exposing classified information or just making everything up --had photos of her taken vacuuming in heels to show that--well, frankly, I don't have a damned clue what she was showing there, --called a news conference to--wait for it--denounce the use of fluorescent light bulbs because they contain mercury and introduced a bill to halt a program designed to phase out the use of old-fashioned, inefficient incandescent bulbs, causing great ridicule even among GOP colleagues.

If you dare, you can read her blog posts at townhall.com but bring a barf bag, whichever party you belong to. Emesis is non-partisan.

So her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg (you know, I still enjoy saying that) has raised over a million dollars since this flap began, and the DNCC has now stated that they'd be matching it. Tinklenberg has been running new ads in the greater Saint Cloud megalopolis, positive ones focusing on his achievement, which apparently do not involve anything you'd need to look up in the DSM-IV.

Trying To Avoid A Permanent Republican Minority
The GOP is quite right in distancing itself from Bachmann; there are far too many Michele Bachmanns in senior and indeed elected positions in the party, and with a vastly unpopular president, an election it believes it will lose, and the prospects of massive Democratic majorities in House and Senate for a time when it is likely one or more Supreme Court seats will become open, the last thing it needs is to be viewed by the American public as a home for whackjobs and extremists. Kind of funny that I'm excoriating Rep. Bachmann for wanting to investigate thought crime and recommending a purge, but I think it's what the GOP must do if it does not want to marginalize itself for quite a long time. On the other hand, if it does not do this, and becomes the party of the Bachmanns and Robin Hayeseseses and Sarah Palins, a different sort of realignment is not out of the question looking down the road within the next decade or so.

PS. Elwyn Tinklenberg.


We'll let John McCain have the Second Quote Of The Day; McCain's comments to a brain-dead college student at a rally at Michigan State University in 2000.

Audience member: "Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor."

McCain: "I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more."

Audience member: "Are we getting closer and closer to, like, socialism?"

McCain: "Here's what I really believe: That when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more."

Here, with comment, is Jon Stewart's take on it: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=189119&title=mccain-says-the-s-word

OK, that's it. You've had enough. Give me the keys, I'm calling a taxi.

John

October 22 Daily Polling Update, How To Mine Data For Fun And Profit Edition

Well if you're John Zogby, and I'm glad you're not, you're pretty much calling the race today. Other polls more reasonable, and I would suggest that Zogby going from 2.7 to 9.6 in three days says more about him than McCain or Obama. Republicans pull out of more states, mainly ones John Kerry took in 2004, plus Colorado, implying the campaign is in hard-core defensive mode. More financial scandal bubbling around Gov. Palin, both expense fiddling (illegal) and massive clothing expenditures by the RNC for her and her family so they won't look so much like they come from the meth capital of Alaska (probably legal but mindbogglingly stupid during a recession). Sen. Biden causes a big foofaraw and it's not even about one of the actually stupid things he says; public seems to mistake him for Manny Ramirez and says "that's just Joe being Joe." It's also not too much of a stretch to assume any new president will be challenged some time in his first half year in office; name one that wasn't. Obama looks like the professor he probably would be in an alternate universe where there was more of a Bradley Effect, looking all too presidential chairing a panel on the economy with Paul Volcker, who led the country through the last recession this serious, among others and a variety of Democratic governors (collect 'em all!). More companies announce layoffs with bad earnings. NBC Poll i significant not because of a 10 point margin or even that it shows Palin is the biggest drag on McCain, but rather because it's another piece of evidence that Obama is winning the center. If that's true, and that's still a big if, it's time to call the interior decorators. Headline refers to AP poll, which is just ridiculous, but keeps it close to sell newspapers.

In really important news, I'm going against the grain (and the 1969 Mets/2008 Rays comparisons I've made myself--apply for details) and pick the Phillies to win the World Series. Unless they lose. Oh, and if I offended any Red Sox fans the other day with my comment about Manny and Jason Bay, my humblest apologies. No Red Sox were harmed during the making of this note.

ABC/WaPo steady at nine yesterday
Diageo/Hotline flat on absolutely no news, and let's keep it that way
Gallup closes a bit, but it's still the same range, not breaking out either way
GWU/Battleground widens by a point, but a two point Obama lead is really only marginally less rational than one
Rasmussen opens to a six point Obama lead, but it's been in a four to six range for a while, state polls showing 9 point McCain lead in WV, 11 in SC.
R2K takes a point off McCain, lead now 10, nothing much to say, seems about in keeping
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has managed to go from a 2.7% lead two days ago to 5.4% yesterday to 7.9% today to 9.6% today; still on track for a 40+ point win .Puh-leeze.



Fox Poll Makes Sense, AP Poll Visibly Trumped-Up
In non-dailies, Fox has a new poll with a 49-40 Obama lead, up from 46-39 two weeks ago. All the usual things apply, as far as issues of change, economy. 35% say Colin Powell's endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Obama, while Fox managed to find 25% who said it would make them less likely; as there wasn't an approval poll on Powell anywhere in the country that had him anywhere near a 25% disapproval, that's odd. There's an AP/GfK poll out also that you may hear about, but it's weird. 10 point lead among registered voters but only one among likelies? Issues questions dramatically favor Obama, but when they take 27% of the total survey off to create their "likely voters," the lead evaporates. Internals show that they take younger voters down to well below the 2004 levels, when it's much more likely to be well above. There are others. It's about the worst poll I've seen in terms of data mining, and I look at IBD/TIPP every day. Fuggedaboutit.

They Call It Pew Because It Stinks For McCain
But seriously folks, it's actually a little unrealistic, I think. The Pew Research Center does have a new poll out showing a 14 point Obama lead, 53-39 among likely voters. I don't really remember seeing McCain under 40%, and this is actually up seven points from their poll a week ago, which argues for outliers somewhere. Pew is, however, a nationally known and well-respected service, and you'll hear about it in the news. On the issues, though, about what you'd expect, Obama wins on the economy by 21 points, 53-32. They're noting a widespread loss in confidence in McCain, with many more voters having doubts about his judgment--41% say he has poor judgment, while 20% say so about Obama. Here's one big difference between this poll and others--McCain is generally viewed with more enthusiasm by his base in most polls, while in this one McCain voters actually find their own candidate less inspiring, while 71% find Obama inspiring; he wins on all the usual character questions as well, which can't be a surprise. Looking at what I can find on internals, I do see this poll includes cellphone users and a 19 point Obama lead among independents. Also, McCain has lost support among white men and evangelicals--we see polls that go both ways on those demographics, and I don't know that we can trust either. That being said, this poll actually probably underrepresents younger voters, who are Obama's strongest constituency, and overrepresents seniors. I don't understand the party ID weighting, though--while I'm good with 37% Democrats and 31% GOP, Independents are only 28%, leaving 4% who wouldn't say. It's not reasonable to expect, but that whole 4% could be in the Obama camp, and skew the party weighting as a result. I'm just playing devil's advocate on it because I don't think 14 is quite right and we should find reasons to understand it. Here, you try it: http://people-press.org/report/462/obamas-lead-widens

NBC Poll: ZOMG! Palinmania Is Like, Soooooo Last Month, Obama Cements The Center
New NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out last night, showing the mandatory (but still I feel slightly overstated) 10 point Obama lead, 52-42, up from 49-43 two weeks ago; there is, however, evidence that last week's tightening of the numbers in favor of Sen. McCain is over, at least for the last couple days. This poll shows what we've been seeing mounting evidence for: Barack Obama is winning the center. A 12 point lead for Barack Obama among independent voters is about in line with what we see elsewhere, but it's significant that he retains a 12 point lead among suburban voters, a four point lead with white women, and perhaps most importantly of all, a six point edge, 50-44, among Roman Catholics. Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the poll along with Republican counterpart Neil Newhouse, suggests that what we're seeing is people's general high comfort level with "who is Barack Obama." I think that all the other polls we've seen in the last week say the exact same thing, which also implies that the McCain attack strategy may have difficulty gaining traction even if it moves into an entirely more vicious stretch run.

On the issues, it's also all about comfort. Obama has a 39 point edge on health care, 21 on the economy, 21 on the mortgage and housing crises, 17 on dealing with the Wall Street crisis, 14 on taxes, and 12 on energy. McCain has a 20 point edge on who would be more likely to catch bin Laden (remember, he's the one with the double secret plan to do it, but we'll only hear it if he's elected) and a five point edge on handling Iraq, a slim 4 point edge on strong leadership qualities. Obama has a 30 point advantage in "offering hope and optimism," 20 points on improving America's standing in the world, and perhaps most importantly of all, a gigantic 20 point edge on having the right temperament to be president. Enthusiasm is also a big issue, though I believe that last week's McCain bump was more about the red getting redder than people falling of the fence into his camp; 52% of Obama voters say they're excited to vote for Obama, while 26% of McCain voters say they're excited about him. 48% say they have confidence in Obama as Commander-In-Chief, compared with 50% for McCain (incidentally, this I've found to be a very good guide as to whether the poll has a party lean); a month ago it was 42-53. 56% say they are confident that Obama would do a good job as president, while only 44% say that of McCain. Where this poll may actually show a GOP lean is that 55% say Obama shares their background and values, compared with 57% who say that about McCain; in other polls, Obama usually wins by a long shot, largely because McCain's score is not nearly as high as this.

The single biggest negative for McCain, and again I would say this is in line with other surveys, but a bit more explicit, is Sarah Palin. 55% now say she is not qualified to serve as president, and her net favorables have turned negative, which we don't see much of in polls without a Democratic house advantage. It's a fairly significant -9 in this survey too, down from +20 when she was chosen. So what we see here is voters liking Barack Obama more as they get to know him, and Sarah Palin less as they get to know her. When they get to know her expense account I rather think old-style Republicans will like her even less.
Ecclesiastico-Political Side Note, RC Division
The question of whether the abortion issue, promoted (with dubious legality if you want to remain tax-free) by the RC church, now sits as one important issue among many is an interesting one. I'd note a few items; first, that issues of social justice and anti-war sentiment are no stranger to the church, though during the papacy of John Paul II, parish priests were largely instructed to talk about abortion at quite literally every opportunity (and if you want to see a real wedding buzz-kill, watch some inarticulate local cleric frothing at the mouth about the baby killers in between vows), and some bishops stepped way over the line by making pronouncements that you were committing a mortal sin by voting for a pro-choice candidate. There is much less of this talk today, though it still exists. I'd point out two things there: first, we're in a recession and people need to know who's going to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, etc, which actually gets a lot more play in the bible. Additionally, there's a new sheriff in town since the 2004 election, and Benedict XVI may have, in my opinion, a much more nuanced view of the world than his rather more black-and-white predecessor, while still being no less staunchly anti-abortion. If you're going to make something a make-or-break issue during a recession and financial crisis, most people are more likely to make it about how they're going to get by this winter.

You don't hear as much about the abortion issue this year, and there's a simple reason for it. When you're in a recession and you try to fight a one-issue campaign on an issue that isn't the recession, you lose. We'll see if you can win with a no-issue campaign.

You Heard It Here First Dept.
We've been talking for a while about how this recession would be about jobs, and really no amount of money injected into keeping banks solvent would prevent companies feeling the pinch from laying off significant percentages of their work force. Also that it would be likely to happen very soon, along with September quarter earnings, as I believed the general tone of earnings would be bad and companies often soften the blow to investors by doing something happy like firing thousands of people. Well, that's what's happening here. Merck added itself to the pile today as the recession seems bad enough that people are even not refilling prescriptions (see, here's an example of how not having good insurance, much less no insurance at all, can, umm, well, kill you, so lets' think about that when we discuss health care coverage for all Americans, and especially all children.) The company announced it would lay off over 7,000 people, of which over 3,000 would be in the US. I'd be surprised if we didn't see unemployment move up to the 9% area by the time this is done, possibly even 10. (I don't count.)

Pit Bull Spiro Agnew With Lipstick (Bought By The RNC)
So here's one reason for the NBC poll showing the good governor of what is the largest state in America (if you don't count forty-eight others) being a bigger drag on John McCain than George Bush. Apparently one of the ways you can tell which are the pro-America parts of the country is that they allow expense fraud and tax evasion, but it doesn't get in to the New York Post if it's a) the Republican running mate and b) true. According to the AP, Gov. Palin charged Alaska not just for staying at home, but for her children's travel (including one trip to see their father in a snowmobile race), though the $21,000 cost of this is dwarfed by the $150,000 the RNC spent at Saks and Neiman-Marcus to clothe the backwoods family in something that didn't involve bearskin. Curious choice during a recession. And the irony just drips, coming on the day when the New York Post had to retract its item claiming that Michelle Obama ordered expensive room service items at the Waldorf-Astoria (as if that were a news story, but the Post retracted it when presented with proof Mrs. Obama was not in fact at the Waldorf that night). Additionally, travel expenses for children on your business are not tax deductible, so there may be a little IRS issue looming. Frankly, she's looking more like a common political grafter ever day, and the question now becomes whether she's more likely to serve in the big house than the White House. Here, enjoy, and don't look yourself in the mirror if you're still supporting her: http://www.newsweek.com/id/165012

John Edwards, eat your heart out Dept: They've spent close to $5,000 on hairstyling for the Governor, making your measly $400 haircut look like a buzz cut from Angelo the barber across from the fire house downtown who takes bets on the Jets game if he knows you long enough. Obama campaign saying nothing so far about the clothing allowance, nor should they: enough Republicans are up in arms about it that they'll continue to be spitting mad through Election Day. Pat Nixon and her good Republican cloth coat are spinning in the grave.

Lying For The Lord (Or At Least For A Fifth Generation Cassette Version)
OK, this pro-America, anti-America, pro-God, anti-God crap has to stop, or you'll start hearing phrases like "Godless communists" again, plus it puts millions of decent, sincere believers in an awfully awkward position. The Homunculus Of The Day (TM), Rep. Robin Hayes of suddenly swing state North Carolina has admitted that his bizarre speech to a local crowd when he said that "liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God" was in fact his own bizarre speech. After making these comments (and I think that about 99.432% of you reading this would fall into the anti-American slacker failure atheist category, so enjoy it now because you're all going to h-e-double hockeysticks), Rep. Hayes chose how seriously he took his comments by using both the Third (Second if your'e Roman Catholic or Lutheran, but we can talk about that another time) and Ninth Commandment as a rolling paper and swearing he never said those things. Unfortunately for the Congressman, who has been around since the Witch of Endor was just a misunderstood high school girl wearing black and considering her first tattoo, reporters put stuff on tape these days (Congressman, if you don't believe me, ask Sen. McCain about that whole not knowing much about the economy thing and YouTube), especially when it's a reporter for a TV station where stuff tends to get, well, broadcast to the whole damn world.

OK, til tomorrow...

John

October 21 Daily Polling Update, London Calling Edition

Tons of data today, so this is going to be more of a grown-up edition. Sorry about that, greater amusement content tomorrow, promise. National polls definitely in at least a holding pattern; tightening trend of the last week seems to be over with a couple days of modest gains for Obama. Lots of state polls yesterday/today, mostly good for Obama, though not exclusively. CBS/NY Times poll re-interviewing respondents from before the first debate shows a larger Obama margin, usual issues issues. Obama cancelling events Thursday and Friday to visit his gravely ill grandmother in Hawaii; amoral cretins on both sides talk exclusively about the political fallout, as if his grandmother were being selfish choosing this week to be dying. Incidentally, he's showing what, if anything, "heartland values" actually means. Both parties seem pleased by Chairman Bernanke's statement that further stimulus is needed and moreover, might even work; markets thrilled just to hear there is in fact someone at the helm. Matt Drudge (excuse the expression and brb while I go wash my hands) finds a poll that is only Obama +2; unfortunately for McCain it's a survey of children on the Nickelodeon cable network. FEC investigating whether street money was paid in candy bars. McCain is going to stop crowing about not talking about the Rev. Wright (as if) and start talking about the Rev. Wright--does this mean they have to stop calling Obama Muslim? Virginia polls moving significantly in Obama's direction; who knew half the state would be insulted by being called Communist and not the "real Virginia?" Other than Virginians, that is. The New Republic now suggesting connection between Powell Doctrine and Powell endorsement of Obama--not like (ahem) you didn't read that here two days ago...

ABC/WaPo posts really late in the day, so we'll just be a day behind with this one because I don't want to send this out in the evening
Diageo/Hotline continues to wobble, because I think it's put together a little wobbly
Gallup widens slightly in both likely voter scenarios, lead tracks economic viewpoint
GWU/Battleground is now a one point Obama lead, which is truly bizarre but this one can bounce 5 points in a day due to small daily samples and 5 day tracking, which argues people are probably taking them too seriously--watch for a similar swing back by the weekend
Rasmussen stays flat, though Obama now ahead of McCain by a six point margin on leadership, significant in a GOP leaning poll
R2K stays flat, no surprises
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby has managed to go from a 2.7% lead two days ago to 5.4% yesterday to 7.9% today; at this rate Obama will win by approximately 50 points



Just a quick note now that there are eight of these things. I tend to like Rasmussen the best, despite a 1-2 point GOP lean (so at least I'm not going with my personal preference, or all you'd ever hear about is R2K). He's got the best track record of the dailies and publishes decent info, though not detailed internals. Zogby, Battleground, and TIPP are worthless, which you can see in retrospect from how jumpy they are, which implies design flaws, which I strongly believe abound. I'm not even going to talk about IBD/TIPP because I have too much respect for you. R2K seems above-average, though with a similar or greater Democratic lean to Rasmussen's towards the Republicans. Gallup and Hotline are mediocre and should not be used to settle bets.

There's actually a bit of information in Zogby today worth mentioning because it speaks to a larger point I've avoided discussing, so when i've picked myself up and sat back down on the chair I fell off, I'll give it to you. A great many states are engaging in early voting this year, to avoid inconvenience on Election Day, provide a more orderly process and at least partially because it's a lot less embarrassing than having Castro offer to send Cuban election monitors to ensure free elections every four years. I mention this because it appears to be largely groups that claimed to be disenfranchised in 2000 and 2004, primarily minorities, that are taking advantage of early voting this year. Zogby shows a 21 point Obama lead among people who have already voted in the first few days of early voting. This shows at the very least that an awful lot of minority voters and voters in heavily Democratic districts in general feel their votes were stolen, whether they were or not, and are doing what they can to redress a real or perceived injustice. The system may just be stronger than the folk trying to game it after all.

CBS Re-Interviews Respondents From Before The First Debate; Apparently They Prefer Being Talked To Over Being Harangued. Who Knew?
CBS went back and re-interviewed 476 likely voters they'd surveyed before the first debate to see how their views had changed after three and a half debates and a bitter campaign. They had. In short, people feel they now know and trust Barack Obama, while they were surprised and a little distressed by John McCain, which is a gigantic swing from early in the cycle. Before the first debate, these voters favored Barack Obama 48-43; today, that has expanded to 54-41. Obama has held on to nearly all his original voters (98%), while McCain has had a little more difficulty--while 88% sounds like a lot, it means that 12% of his support has eroded in under a month. Undecided voters have mostly fallen off the fence, with Obama taking 52% of the, 36% going for McCain, and 12% undecided. Independents go to Obama by 50-43, more or less in line with what seems to be the nation as a whole at present; however, that's a significant shift from a month ago, when they actually favored McCain/Palin by a 46-40 margin. Overall favorables of Obama have improved significantly during the campaign and through the debates in particular, while these debate-watchers have actually lowered their opinion of McCain significantly; Obama now has a +20 net favorable, while McCain is at -9 (53/33 vs 36/45). Obama wins on the issues, with slightly more people thinking McCain will raise their taxes than Obama, and the Democrat wins on the economy and crisis management, meaning that Obama's explanations are working better than McCain's attacks, which is the big takeaway from this survey. Obama's performance in the debates, the perception by an overwhelming margin that he is running a more positive campaign, and the idea that he spends more time explaining his positions while McCain spends more time just attacking his opponent all contributed to this striking shift in opinion. Oh, and people like Biden and don't much care for Palin. Big whoop.
State Of The States, And A Lot Of 'Em
So what do we see in the states? Rasmussen has a bunch of battleground state polls, which are almost all good for the Democrat: Colorado +5, Missouri +5 (though Suffolk, historically not nearly as accurate as Rasmussen, has McCain +1), North Carolina +3 (PPP has it Obama +7--a serious Obama victory in NC and this race could not possibly be more over, but there's going to be a stomach-churning load of variability in states like these), Ohio McCain +2 (but again Suffolk somehow makes it Obama +9, so I'd trust Rasmussen) and a full 10 point Obama lead in Virginia, which would be another sign that you can spend the evening watching The West Wing on DVD instead. North Carolina is interesting because McCain is slightly more highly regarded than Obama, but the Democrat wins on the economy and the question of "bringing real change to Washington," crucially important in this 1976-like year. Missouri works out pretty similarly, though the favorables are the same for the two. SUSA also has a few state polls out, showing a tighter-than-expected six point Obama lead in Minnesota, six in Virginia, and eight in Wisconsin. SUSA, remember, was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and did, I believe, a better job than anyone else predicting primaries this year. PPP, typically with a Democratic lean, has a two point Obama lead in Indiana. I think as things stand now, it p robably turns McCain's way, but a blue Indiana will be a blue day for the Republicans in general. Note that an awful lot of this note is talking about Obama leads in states that should have been Republican layups. Something weird is going to have to happen for a GOP win here, but weird things happen.....

Got a few others also. Democratic pollster GQR, which bent over backwards to put together a McCain leaning focus group of independents after last week's debate, has a survey in Georgia which is either dead wrong or explains why Gov. Palin began her 2012 presidential run last week. With, to be sure, a far too high undecided component, it's just a two point McCain lead, 46-44. If this works out this way, it'll be because of a reverse Bradley (which we are considering calling the yeldarB from henceforth) in a state with 29% African-American population and an awful lot of white folk who, in Sen. McCain's phrase are "angry and hurting" but may not want their neighbors to know they're voting for the black guy. You're now seeing rallies in the south with white people wearing Confederate flags and Obama t-shirts. This also means our ideas of what racism means need dramatic adjustment. All of us. Really.

And finally, Grove Insight, who I've never heard of (but which means nothing), has a 13 point Obama margin in Oregon, which is an interesting state in that it's both deep blue and deep red at the same time. The daily Morning Call poll in Pennsylvania has a 12 point Obama lead in the Keystone State, pretty static, while Susquehanna makes it eight. A couple other notes from the Morning Call web site include a profile of Rays' manager (and Hazelton PA native) Joe Maddon and news that a multiple vehicle accident on Route 22 is backing up traffic for miles around Exit 145, so if that's how you get to work, and I'm pretty sure that's how everyone on this list gets to work, you're pretty much hosed today, so stay home. Research 2000 has a 7 point Obama margin in New Hampshire; the lead has expanded since both Obama and Palin were there within a day of each other last week. The differences were striking, Obama talking about the economy, jobs, and how the Granite State taught him not to take anything for granted. The Gov seemed to talk about moose. Well, she did go on about how much NH was like Alaska. I'm pretty sure moose entered into it.
Minnesota Does Not Heart McCarthyism
So after Rep. Michele Bachmann's weirdly unhinged rant on Hardball last week calling for an investigation of anti-American sentiment (thought police?) in Congress, her opponent, the still curiously named Elwyn Tinklenberg (and I'm mostly just writing this so I can say "Elwyn Tinklenberg" a few more times. Elwyn Tinklenberg.) raised over $600,000 in a week, roughly ten times his average fundraising, and the race is now close. Elwyn Tinklenberg is using the money to go on a TV ad blitz in the greater Saint Cloud area (less expensive than NYC, incidentally). Nice ad, pointing out he's an ex-pastor, former Mayor of Blaine, MN, where he built a sports complex without throwing the city's economy into massive debt (ahem), and built roads and light rail as the State Transportation Commissioner. And never accused anyone of thought crimes, which was even unconstitutional in the USSR. It's a highly GOP district, but oh my, they're embarrassed. You betcha. Elwyn Tinklenberg. Elwyn Tinklenberg.

Hasn't Anyone Told Her What The VP Does, YET?
OK, so we know Gov. Palin asked what the heck the VP does before she was tapped as McCain's running mate. And she seemed to think that the VP was the CEO of the Senate in the debate. But you'd really think someone might have clued her in by now. APparently not. In an interview with KUSA in Colorado, Palin responds to the following question:
Q: Brandon Garcia wants to know, "What does the Vice President do?" PALIN: That’s something that Piper would ask me! ... [T]hey’re in charge of the U.S. Senate so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom.

So the VP defines policy for the Senate and helps grade-schoolers. If you don't believe it, and honest to God you shouldn't, watch it here: http://www.9news.com/video/default.aspx?aid=63586
London Calling, And It's Obama's Line That's Ringing
Boris Johnson, the always-amusing Tory mayor of London, has a piece in the Telegraph today http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/21/do2101.xml explaining why, even in conservative-ish overseas eyes, Barack Obama is a sensible choice for President. Perhaps able to look at the candidates without the partisanship of an American voter, Johnson not only gets serious for a moment and notes that Obama "visibly incarnates both change and hope," which we knew, is "highly intelligent" with "an air of courtesy and sincerity" and, in a swipelet of the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, "has no difficulty in orally extemporising a series of grammatical English sentences, each containing a main verb," which is totally irrelevant to my point, but fun to mention. Most importantly, he notes a difference in gravitas between Obama and McCain, and that he could not find a single scrap of evidence that Obama is anything like any of the bad bad bad bad bad things the McCain campaign has tried to pin on him, calling it no more than guilt by association. He also notes the racial angle, and how the election of Obama could actually mark the end of race-based politics, which "will have re-established Americas' claim to be the last, best hope of Earth." A truly moving piece.

And the headline of the piece by the Conservative ex-MP/columnist/editor of The Spectator/current Mayor of London in the most resolutely Tory paper in Britain? "Barack Obama: Why I believe he should be the next President."

OK, tons of data, as promised, some of it contradictory, some of it full of puffery, some of it actually meaningful. On balance, a good day for Obama, and we'll see if it holds over the next few as he steps back to go to Hawaii and the McCain people do as they promise and plumb new depths of scabrousness.

A demain,

John

October 20 Daily Polling Update, The More The Merrier Edition

Well, it's looking a little clearer all the time we're in a trading range for the meanwhile. We won't do anything so vulgar as calculate an average, but it appears that the tightening of the numbers has stabilized for a few days. GOP been trying to make a mighty oak out of a small ACORN, but the first person actually arrested for voter fraud is...a Republican consultant. Speaking of Republican consultants, Freddie Mac appears to have spent a few million on some three years ago to scuttle new regulation, some of whom are now senior figures in the McCain campaign. McCain campaign wants all Obama donations investigated, as AP and Bloomberg report the McCain campaign solicited donations from the Russian government. Sarah Palin continues her campaign for the Vice Presidency in 2008 2012 by denouncing her own campaign's robocalls and underlining additional differences between herself and John McCain, who appears not to notice the shiv sticking out of his back. Watch for Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee turning against Palin and the robocalls by lunchtime. Over 300,000 people have voted early in North Carolina; 60% of those voting in person are Democrats. Obama campaign warning against complacency as volunteers in many states fail to turn up, presumably because they believe the race is over. It aint.

Barack Obama campaigning today in Tampa (congrats, Rays, the 1969 Mets of 2008) at the (excuse the expression) Yankees' Spring Training facility, now called....Steinbrenner Field. May be the first time a Democratic candidate has ever campaigned at an arena named after a man convicted for illegal campaign contributions to the GOP. Maybe not.

ABC/WaPo is now a daily tracker, and a nine point lead on day one
Diageo/Hotline closes to a five point Obama lead, claims McCain has a 9% advantage among white voters, seems high, 67% saying economy biggest issue
Gallup widens to nine among likely voters, noting Palin's SNL appearance and one day of effect of Powell endorsement
GWU/Battleground stays flat but may not have any Powell effect because it takes the weekends off
IBD/TIPP is now in the chart also, but it stinks so I won't talk about it
Rasmussen giveth and taketh away but sayeth nothing of note
R2K whacks a point off McCain, now an eight point lead
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby doubles its Obama lead today to 5.4% and still just makes no damn sense to me



Rasmussen surveyed voters just before the Powell endorsement of Obama which showed the General was viewed favorably by 80% of the population, in line with other polls; Powell may in fact be the most highly regarded public figure in America. I would guess that the preponderance of the unfavorables are on the left as well, and his approval on the right would be even more stratospheric. In a separate poll, Rasmussen has Obama up by 10 points in Virginia. We'll have more on this tomorrow, along with results from Rasmussen on Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri.

CNN has a new national poll out showing that their prior eight point lead has contracted to five in two weeks (six including third-party candidates); this makes perfect sense to me and is in line with the contraction in the trackers. CNN suggests that the poll shows McCain's support has firmed a little because voters may be less inclined to believe he will follow George Bush's economic program. Issues results are about what you'd think, Obama wins the economy, 53-38, and on "helps the middle class," by 63-32.

ABC News/WaPo Poll Now A Daily Tracker, So We'll Start Here
ABC and the Washington Post have a poll out today, their first daily tracking poll, which we will be adding to our tables, giving Obama a nine point lead, 53-44. As usual, over half say the economy is the biggest issue, and Obama wins those voters by a 55-39 margin. The temperament issue seems to cancel out experience, with Obama winning on "able to handle a major crisis," by 49-45, and Obama wins on taxes by 10 points, 52-42. This is a four-day rolling survey, including cell-phone users. I wish I had more internals, things such as party ID etc, but I'll see if I can find them and figure out what it all means later.

On the issue and character questions, the poll suggests what we all already knew--a significant majority (60-37) say the Bill Ayers issue is annoying. A smaller plurality (49-40) are not concerned about ACORN's voter registration efforts, showing that the GOP has done a reasonably good job demonizing the organization (notwithstanding the fact that Sen. McCain himself used to support them). Want more evidence that Palinmania has been replaced by Palin fatigue? In this poll, 52% said that the choice of the Governor as McCain's running mate made them less confident in his judgment, compared with only 38% who said it made them more confident. Just after the choice in early September, the numbers were almost exactly the opposite, 50-39 saying they were more confident in his judgment. What a difference a month and a half makes. On the other hand, when asked the same question about selection of Joe Biden as the Democratic running mate, 56% said it made them more confident in Barack Obama's judgment, with 31% saying it made them less so; probably safe to assume the negative is nearly all partisan.

Looking on the bright side, Obama wins 62-30 on "more optimistic," which is a word that probably has deeper meaning in an election than the dictionary definition. Ronald Reagan was also viewed as being significantly more optimistic than Jimmy Carter, because he had a vision of an America that transcended the difficult present moment. Whether one agrees with Reagan's positions or not is irrelevant; voters responded at the time to that deeper optimism, and that aspect of Sen. Obama's message also seems to be resonating. Independent voters see the optimism nearly the same way, giving the vote to Obama by 57-31 and better suited temperamentally for the presidency than McCain by 52-36.

Racists Suggest Powell Endorsement Is About Race
Pat Buchanan--surprise, surprise--is the first to go the third-rate human being route and claim Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama is because of race. Anyone who's shocked Pat Buchanan is a third-rate human being please call me, because I have some Lehman Brothers stock you might like to pay a hundred bucks a share for. Rush Limbaugh does the same, but "third rate human being" would be several steps up for the amoral, mendacious, drug-addled megalomaniacal demagogue, so we'll skip him. And yes, before you ask, I am looking down my nose at him. I only wish my nose were longer.
Lack Of Candidates' Health Records Raised In NY Times; Biden Agrees To Limited Release, No Response from McCain Or Palin Yet
There's a feature story in the New York Times today (by Lawrence Altman, a columnist who has written on the health of presidential candidates since 1980 and is an MD himself; this isn't a quick hatchet job on anyone) regarding the lack of public health records of three of the four candidates. (Sen. Obama released a letter from physician giving him a "clean bill of health" and has released test results from physicals in 2001, 2004, and 2007) seems to have an impact; Sen. Biden's will be released for inspection by his travelling press corps. While Biden had released a similar doctor's note, the documentation did not say whether he had been scanned for possible recurrence of the aneurysms he has had treated in the past. Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin have not yet commented on their own as some army physicians suggest McCain's melanoma may have been more later stage than claimed. A Palin spokesman had previously said that the Governor would refuse all requests for records or interviews on her health. I'm usually on the side of privacy, as any of you who have ever tried to get me to tell them something might remember. I think, though, that when we are electing a President and Vice President part of the calculus should be one's assessment of those candidates' physical ability to serve their terms out. While Obama's release of his records is commendable, and Biden is falling into line, I should note that none of the four have acceded to the Times' request for interviews on the subject, and the McCain campaign in fact refused to allow the Times to ask a question during the one brief health-related conference call it held several months ago. Story is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/us/politics/20health.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

NFL Notes
Well, I have trouble paying attention to football before the World Series is over, and it's not always easy afterwards. However, we have a bit of a political football being tossed around now, which, public-minded sort that I am, I figured I'd bring to your attention. Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney, universally beloved in and around his hometown, is campaigning for Obama in Pennsylvania and Ohio with OH Governor Ted Strickland and Steelworkers Union President Leo Gerard. On the other hand, and if there are any Miami fans out there, raise your flippers, Dolphins' owner Wayne Huizenga, universally loathed in Miami, Wall Street, and pretty much everywhere else, says he'll sell the team if Obama wins. Huizenga is so detested in football-crazy Florida that the prospect of new Dolphins management could be what puts Obama over the top for keeps in the Sunshine State.

A Bad Day For GOP Consultants Who Would Prefer Not To Go To Jail
Hoo boy. So what have we got? As mentioned above, the first person arrested for voter registration fraud is in fact not connected with ACORN but instead a Republican operative, Marc Jacoby, who fraudulently registered himself in California so that his firm would be allowed to register voters and collect petition signatures in the state. Apparently his firm, YPM (Young Political Majors, believe it or not) duped people into registering as Republicans by telling them they had to do it in order to sign a petition to toughen penalties against child molesters, managing to trivialize several issues at once. The firm is also under investigation in Florida and Massachusetts, and was the defendant in a lawsuit in Arizona. He might have been better off filling out registration forms for Mickey Mouse. From the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fraud20-2008oct20,0,3842357.story

Further Freddie, Fannie Follies
Once again, the McCain campaign seems to be considerably deeper involved themselves in an ugly issue than the other side. While castigating Barack Obama for supposed connections to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, people now aligned with the McCain campaign were allegedly taking loads of cash to scuttle reform of the agencies. The AP reports at http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/T/THE_INFLUENCE_GAME_HOUSING?SITE=WWL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT that the GSO "secretly paid a Republican consulting firm $2 million to kill legislation that would have regulated and trimmed the mortgage finance giant and its sister Fannie Mae, three years before the government took control to prevent their collapse." This legislation, incidentally, was introduced by Nebraska GOP Senator Chuck Hagel, who has also been an outspoken critic from the right on the war in Iraq and has not endorsed John McCain's candidacy. This is more striking because it turns out that the CEO of the lobbying firm, Doug Goodyear, was hired by the McCain campaign to manage the GOP convention this year. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis and his firm have also taken over $2 million from Fannie and Freddie since 2000. McCain has called the collapse of Fannie and Freddie one of the "real catalysts, really the match that lit the fire" of the global credit crisis. Well, frankly, given the amount of money that passed around here, and his involvement in the last huge financial scandal in the U.S., the senator should know.

OK, too long. That's because I've used a lot of tomorrow's information waiting for the ABC numbers. If they're really coming out at 5pm every day, they're always going to be a day behind. See you tomorrow, same Bat-time, same Bat-channel!

John

October 19 Daily Polling Update, Actual Honest To Goodness Endorsement That Matters For Once Edition

Colin Powell is going to vote for Obama, look for this to carry a little weight particularly in the military-heavy states of FL, VA, and NC. Gov. Palin goes on Saturday Night Live and doesn't particularly seem to enjoy it, but I say it's because she's uncomfortable with an ensemble cast rather than being the center of attention. Polls in their trading range, narrower than a week ago, which I have thought all along reflects a higher degree of enthusiasm among the GOP base for McCain rather than people in the middle falling his way. Watch the Obama team employ the Powell Doctrine of "overwhelming force" (after diplomacy is exhausted) with the vast amounts of money it has raised since the conventions and lead a charge in battleground states. Campaign claims to have raised $150 million in September alone, with an average donation of "under $100." If he's spending $5 million in West Virginia in the next two weeks, imagine what goes into Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. NBC/Mason-Dixon polls show a double digit Obama lead in Wisconsin, where the RNC has stopped advertising (though the McCain campaign has not), a virtual tie in Ohio, and only a six point lead in West Virginia. Many polls showing Obama ahead among seniors seeing Medicare and Social Security at risk. GOP Senator, Susan Collins of Maine demands McCain campaign stop scurrilous robo-calls, which ironically appear to be generated by the firm the Bush campaign used to slime McCain in 2000, owned by longtime associate and below-market landlord of Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman, who also demands all negative advertising end, especially Al Franken's.

Note to Red Sox fans: if the Sawx win the pennant tonight, you are hereby ordered to cease and desist blithering, blathering, and/or bluthering about the Manny trade. In fact, even if they lose, they're a better team with Jason Bay in left, so deal with it.

Diageo/Hotline tightens by another point, but by taking a few votes away from Obama; McCain can't get past 41% in this one
Gallup bucks trend, shows gains for Obama, expanded likely voters model shows erosion for McCain and gains for Obama. Hmm.
GWU/Battleground is out for a Sunday drive
Rasmussen adds back the Obama point it lost yesterday, in a holding pattern, adds to Democratic weighting, now really doesn't look too much like a GOP poll at all, but that might be to add complacency to the Democratic ranks, given that it is a GOP poll at all...
R2K stays at a seven point Obama lead, with three very consistent single days
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby down to 2.7, and lead among independents cut from 16 to 8 overnight. You don't move eight points without something major happening, and nothing happened. Really nothing happened. Srsly.




And this is all why it's not over. Yet. I'm not being all panicky and stuff, but we're writing about public opinion polling here, not one's personal political instincts. Why, you ask, or would if I weren't being all rhetorical and stuff? OK. And again, I'm not saying McCain's going to win, I'm just saying, trying to gain an understanding of what may not be in the numbers I publish every day, that the proverbial fat lady is still just warming up in her dressing room.

1) Reversion to the mean. Stuff tightens naturally. Just does. Welcome to the world of the normal distribution. You want to go outside the bell curve, play the stock market (that's another argument entirely, but one I'm happy to have with anyone).

2) Many people vote for the person, not the issues, and when they get to the voting booth, more Americans are going to identify more with the old white guy than the inspirational black one. I'd hasten to add this is not cross-burning, but equally hastily say it's there all the same. A serious recession could negate this one (see below).

3) A little less panic. Although we're in a recession--get used to it, it's been here a while and it's gonna be here a while and the NBER will confirm that when they have a moment but right now they're texting their BFFs about the great sales at the mall they wish they had the money to go to--oil prices have dropped dramatically in the last couple weeks, which is most notable at the pumps where people can begin to afford a tank of gas without having to sell the car to pay for it. Now, I'd say this has more to do with the markets in general, slower consumption because of the aforementioned recession, and the collapse of a lot of speculators, but it's also curious timing, and timing that was called by more than a few sources several months ago to happen right before the election, giving a bump to the Republican candidate. Could be a lot of reasons. More than one at a time. The world gets complicated that way, you know. Really.
Powell's Endorsement Of Obama Might Move A Needle Or Two, A Little. Maybe.
Well, the biggest news today was not unexpected, but still will likely make quite an impact. As we'd discussed yesterday, Gen. Colin Powell, former Secretary of State and moderate but firm Republican, today announced on Meet The Press that he will be voting for Barack Obama. Powell gave a lengthy and thoughtful explanation as to how he came to his decision, which he reached with some regret as McCain is a longtime friend and someone he respects and admires. Before talking about his choice, he enumerated several issues the incoming president will face, notably the re-allocation of the military to better serve American interests and a crisis in education. Powell gave several reasons for his decision, most notably what he called a "narrowing" of the Republican party which makes him personally uncomfortable and feeling as though he's now no longer aligned with the GOP, the fact that McCain has not shown leadership and in fact seemed somewhat befuddled by the economic crisis, the tone of the McCain campaign, especially as it has descended into fear-mongering particularly with the recent robo-call campaign which has to be heard to be believed, and that he has been impressed with how Sen. Obama has grown over the course of the last two years, that he has shown an intellectual curiosity and willingness to expand, and that he has surrounded himself with knowledgeable people who can provide the strength in areas in which he is not expert. When asked by sometime McCain BFF Tom Brokaw about Obama's insistence on a timeline for Iraq withdrawal and how that ran counter to Powell's own statements on the ideal strategy, the General pointed out that the Bush Administration is at present working out a time line of its own with the Iraqi government so it was rapidly becoming a non-issue.

In a clear break with the Administration he served, Powell stated "I firmly believe that at this point in America's history, we need a president that will not just continue, even with a new face and with the changes and with some maverick aspects, who will not just continue basically the policies that we have been following in recent years." Powell also made clear his extreme disappointment with the choice of Sarah Palin as the Vice Presidential candidate, stating flat out that he does not "think she is ready to be President,which is the job of the vice president. So that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment Sen. McCain made." Presciently, I believe, Powell stated "I think we need a transformational figure. I think we need a president who is a generational change and that's why I'm supporting Barack Obama, not out of any lack of respect or admiration for Sen. John McCain."

It seemed to me that the decision was indeed arrived at with regret, that he would have liked to endorse McCain but found it impossible under the circumstances. As far as the wave of Republicans endorsing the Democrat in the last couple weeks, we all seem to forget that you can't agree with a candidate on everything, and that anyone who claims he does is probably incapable of independent thought (heck, there's even evidence that the husband of the Republican VP candidate disagrees with the Republican Party on the issue of Alaska statehood.). Three important states in particular have extremely high populations of active and retired military personnel: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. While we noted yesterday that only 12% of people in a Rasmussen poll said Powell's endorsement would influence them, let me remind the assembled semi-multitudes that 12% is rather a lot of people, especially at a time when considerably fewer than 12% are likely to be in the "undecided" column. It's not a stretch to suggest that Powell remains the most admired man in America, and I would say rightly so. It might be amusing to see who attacks him as anti-American.

Not Ready For Prime Time Governor
So she goes on SNL, which shows better humor than I'm still prepared to give her credit for (I'd note that when she gets laffs, it's usually at the expense of someone else); let's assume the reason she went was that she was, ummm, just following orders. But peoples of the left and the right, all y'all take a chill pill. It wasn't horrible, it wasn't great. And it's over. I smirked a bit, but other than the topicality mostly what I learned was that SNL still isn't funny any more. I smirked at the moose shooting bit in the Weekend Update rap, but honestly, this show should have hung it up decades ago and just came back every four years. Also, the next TV show, person, animal, vegetable, or mineral who inflicts Coldplay on me is going to get a 10 1/2 D foot up his, her or its tuchas. Perhaps this performance should be looked at more as an audition for her next job than anything else, presumably as a Fox News personality between, oh, November 5 and the start of the 2012 campaign season in April 2009. She had time to rehearse because there was this national security briefing for the candidates at the White House. Why not? See below.
Not Ready For Crunch Time Either, If You Ask The Current Administration
So there was this briefing at the White House for the candidates as the White House is looking to line up support for the negotiations with the Iraqi government to begin to cede control of military operations (file under timeline for withdrawal). The candidates and their running mates were invited to take part--let's count them, One...Two...Three...ummm... Hmmm. Curious. Someone wasn't at the table. The administration tries to pitch it half-heartedly that the other three are senators and on military oversight committees and the one not invited was only a governor. However, they had already said that the invitations were a courtesy to the next president, whoever that might be. Two other important senators got briefed, so there are 95 other senators who didn't get called to come to the tea party. Herewith an exchange that covers it, with embarrassed spokesman Sean McCormack:

Q: You called Senator Biden, you called McCain. Did you also call Governor Palin? McCORMACK: No. If you hadn’t noticed, she’s a governor. Not a senator or a congressman. Q: She’s a vice presidential candidate. McCORMACK: Right. Q: She also has extensive foreign affairs experience. (LAUGHTER) McCORMACK: Right. I explained to you the reasoning behind the phone call. Q: Maybe if this has to do with Russia, you would have called her.

Of course, that exchange is on the rabidly socialistic communist C-SPAN, so take it for what it's worth. And take it from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdC2HbRlxz0 Here's the story, from the AP: http://www.examiner.com/a-1643166~Palin_omitted_from_White_House_Iraq_troop_briefing.html?cid=rss-Politics

OK. That's enough. Go have lunch.

John

October 18 Daily Polling Update, Lucky Thirteen Edition

Well, we're bouncing around a bit, but converging at the same time. Some up, some down, but all the reputable ones seem to head into this 5-7 point Obama lead. Got a couple eyebrow-raising newspaper endorsements, probably meaningless, but at least my left eyebrow is still up. At least one Minnesota Republican Congresswoman is barking mad. McCain tells the St. Petersburg Times he wishes he'd picked their governor as his running mate, sort of. Well, mostly. Colin Powell is on Meet The Press tomorrow, speculation abounds as to whether or not he'll endorse or remain above the fray. An indicator that has picked the winner of every election since 1860 picks a winner today in 13 simple questions, and I'm going to make you figure it out for yourself, unless you already have. Oh, and here's my tip on the stock market: put down Graham and Dodd and pick up Freud and Jung. If you plump for Dr. Phil instead, you deserve whatever you get.

Diageo/Hotline closes up the 2 it opened yesterday, 8 point lead, and they're pretty lazy about giving you any info on weekends
Gallup expanded likely voter poll closes up by a couple, mainly adding support for McCain while not drawing off Obama's, while registered voter poll expands, just showing the higher the turnout, the better for Obama
GWU/Battleground sleeps in on Saturday and Sunday
Rasmussen adds back the Obama point it lost yesterday, in a holding pattern
R2K I've always thought was way too Democrat-weighted, but now closes to a more reasonable 7 point lead; I could never get used to 12
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby narrows a bit but John Zogby is still trying to hit that six-run homer to erase a five run deficit...



Rasmussen on a slow day has a quick poll on the Colin Powell question that's on the lips of everyone in Washington and the press and pretty much nobody else. Anyway, it's a slow news day, the kind of day that Republicans release their tax records (again), so here you go. 42% think Powell is likely to go against his party (which, come to think of it, went against him rather nastily when he was Secretary of State, though he's far too good a soldier and a man for that to matter, I think) and endorse Barack Obama. So that gets the headlines, but 35% say he'll endorse McCain. Powell is still admired by a vast majority of the public, both Republican and Democrat, so I can see how his endorsement could matter at least a little bit. The important figure here is that only 12% say it's likely to influence their vote, so I'll end this point here, except to say that there probably aren't 12% of voters that are undecided, so I'm damned if I know what that could mean.

Is That Frost On Hell's Windshield?
There were two significant newspaper endorsements of Barack Obama yesterday that are worth mentioning, even in a newspaperless age. The Los Angeles Times, which was (though really isn't any more) a staunch Republican paper for decades, made its first endorsement of any presidential candidate since 1972 (with an endorsement of Nixon, which apparently embarrassed them out of endorsing for thirty-six years), and its first endorsement of a Democrat ever, when it picked Obama yesterday. At the same time, the still-staunchly-Republican Chicago Tribune, the newspaper of Lincoln, founded on free trade and abolitionism by one of the founders of the Republican Party itself, also endorsed its first Democratic presidential candidate in its history. The Tribune, which notes that it has "watched him, worked with him and argued with him" as he rose through Chicago politics to the Democratic presidential nomination, and notes an atmosphere of ineptitude and corruption in the GOP today (their words) states (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-tribune-endorsement,0,1371034.story)

We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.

On the subject of a running mate, the paper says that McCain, turning his own words around, "put his campaign before country." Saying that Obama would likely govern as a "pragmatic centrist," (with which I wholeheartedly agree and applaud, for what it's worth) and noting a economic team of free traders (Chicago School, naturally!), the paper closes by saying that it is "proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States."

The Los Angeles Times http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-endorse19-2008oct19%2C0%2C5198206.story also surprises by its endorsement of Obama, which it notes comes despite a McCain economic plan more in line with Times editorial policy. The editorial notes, however, that in its view McCain "has been disturbingly unfocused in his response to the current financial situation, rushing to "suspend" his campaign and take action (although just what action never became clear). Having little to contribute, he instead chose to exploit the crisis". At the same time, it echoes the Tribune's view of Obama as a centrist, saying that although certainly a Democrat and coming more from the left than the right (though one would be hard pressed to call him any sort of leftist without sounding like an arrant moron) he is "a constitutional scholar, he has articulated a respect for the rule of law and the limited power of the executive that make him the best hope of restoring balance and process to the Justice Department." While not "sanguine" about all of Obama's economic policies, the Times has found him to be pragmatic and willing to look to a variety of sources for knowledge and expertise including Wall Street itself. Ultimately, though, the Times says that it is Obama's temperament, his "maturity," that makes him ultimately more presidential than his opponent, who it notes has been from time to time "irresponsible" and ultimately "nearly unrecognizable" as the John McCain who built a reputation in Washington for standing up for what he believes.

The Washington Post (which had in my opinion spent the first part of this campaign with a distinctly pro-McCain slant), El Diario/La Prensa (the largest Spanish-language paper in New York, and one which carries a lot of weight in the Latino community) and the consistently Republican Denver Post also endorsed Obama yesterday. May or may not mean much (and I think El Diario does mean something, even if Obama was already on track to win two-thirds of the Latino vote), but there it is.

I spent an awful lot of time talking about this because the endorsements are an extraordinary sign of Obama's ability to impress those on the other side of the aisle, if they are willing to shut up a moment and look and listen. We can add the Tribune and Times to the list of notable Republican endorsements of Sen. Obama.

We Know, Senator, We Just Weren't Sure You Did
So. More newspapers. You'd think they weren't irrelevant in the 21st century or something, but an interesting thing happened in the St. Petersburg Times today. No, no, wasn't about Peter the Great (and jokes about his being a schoolmate of John McCain's are probably superfluous at this point, unless they're REALLY funny, which they're almost exclusively not). Was about, ummm, uhhh, a running mate, especially as it related to his chances in Florida, where his current running mate has been leading a series of rallies stopping just short of a rousing chorus of the Horst Wessel Song. While McCain claims no regrets about choosing Palin, he also states that he would almost certainly be winning Florida had he chosen Charlie Crist as his VP. "Charlie, because he's so popular, he probably would have made a significant difference,'' McCain said in an interview with the St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9. dThe rest of the story was about Joe The Plumber, with the Arizona Senator completely destroying the man's life after the revelations that he's 1) not registered to vote, 2) not actually a licensed plumber and 3) lying about the business he claimed to be buying by telling 300 million Americans to send him an email. Better expand your mail capacity, there, Joe. Oh here, you don't want to read it, the rest of it's the usual blather, but I'm a good guy so you can find it at http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/article860402.ece .

The Envelope Please
I'm burying this near the end to see if anyone actually reads this far. So there's this model, developed in the early 1980s by Allan Lichtman of American University and Russian academic Volodia Kellis-Borok, they call the "13 Keys to the White House," which has accurately predicted the popular vote winner of every presidential election from 1860-1980, and then prospectively from 1984-2004. It's a series of 13 true/falst questions (which you can play along with at home); if five or fewer are "false," the incumbent party's candidate wins. There are a few judgment calls, so there's room for a bit of a fudge factor in it, but I think actually this one is clear even if you bend over backwards to answer them as carefully as possible. I'm not going to tell you who wins, but someone does. Here's a piece Lichtman himself wrote in 2004 explaining the test, along with the questions. Let me know how many falses you come up with: http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/commentary-lichtman.html


A Thorazine Martini With A Twist And An Autographed Photo Of Joe The Witch Hunter For The Really Quite Insane Congresswoman Torquemada From Minnesota, Please
OK, there may actually be one major elected official in America even more comically unsuited for public office than Sarah Palin, or you can view it as a chilling foreshadowing. Or both. Minnesota future ex-Rep. Michelle Bachmann (who has already trashed McCain as being the pick of the media, and called global warming "voodoo, nonsense, hokum, a hoax") went off the deepest of ends yesterday saying on a national cable broadcast that Sen. Obama "may have anti-American views" and in fact called for an "exposé" of the views of members of Congress. Yes, you got that right. A member of Congress just called for a Spanish Inquisition, a revived HUAC to purge what she considers anti-American elements in the United States Congress. Starting with the possible future President, apparently, who she says she is "very concerned he may have anti-American views." She also singled out Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid for "far-leftist views." When asked to name another congressman she would call anti-American, she named, well, nobody.

The most curious thing of all, other than the fact that the good Congresswoman forgot her lithium this morning, was that prior to this round of interviews, she was best known for greeting President Bush on the floor of Congress after the 2007 State of the Union Message by putting her hand on his shoulder and not letting go til she got a kiss, has been trying to paint her Democratic opponent as more of a Bushite than she (if she kissed him, what must her opponent have done?), and indeed a week or so ago said, "If the presidency would somehow go to Barack Obama, I would welcome him to the 6th District as well," she said after a debate. "As a matter of fact, I would put my hand on his shoulder and give him a kiss if he wanted to." Sen. Obama could not be reached for comment as he found it necessary to run to the nearest public convenience to vomit after reading the quote.

This came as a tremendous boon for her opponent, the curiously named Elwyn Tinklenberg, who overcame that impediment to generate a huge fundraising day in the aftermath of Rep. Bachmann's unhinged and, dare one say it, seditious accusations. An online petition to censure Bachmann has now received 18,000 signatures (remember, this is Saint Cloud, MN, not New York--18,000 is not insignificant if they're local). Five days ago, Bachmann was ahead by only four in the polls. Over/under, anyone?

OK, I've got better things to do on a beautiful Saturday afternoon, except that I mostly went out and did them on a beautiful Saturday morning. See you tomorrow!

John

Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day
When there is a lack of honor in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned. (Quoted in New York Times, 1964)