Most importantly of all, though, whether you're Republican, Democrat, or Independent, Senator Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, could use all our prayers. "Without going through the details too much, she's gravely ill. We weren't sure and I'm still not sure whether she makes it to Election Day," Obama told ABC's "Good Morning America" in an interview broadcast Friday. She's got mine.
ABC/WaPo holds to 11 point lead with no signs of real motion, McCain's age cited as bigger negative factor than Obama's race
Diageo/Hotline opens up to a seven point Obama lead; nearly tied among male voters
Gallup moves slightly Obamawards, separate poll shows Jewish voters not buying the Arab terrorist spiel, supporting Obama nearly 3-1
GWU/Battleground still three, but they seem to have changed yesterday's lead to four after the fact, so go figure. Honestly, I'm pretty sick of these guys, but at least it's not IBD/TIPP.
R2K widens back to 12, had narrowed to 7 five days ago, still concerned it leans a little too far left, but 10 point lead among independents seems about right (see Zogby if you dare)
Rasmussen holds flat with yesterday at 7, only a three point McCain lead among men, while Obama leads with white women by 3
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby closes by nearly two points, but still a 10 point Obama lead, with a 26 point lead with independents and a lead among Roman Catholics, how the lead is only 10 is amusing math

Gallup has a few interesting items beyond their regular poll. Enthusiasm seems high, with a poll showing both Obama and McCain being among the most popular candidates this late in an election since they started keeping track. Favorables for both are probably a bit too high, though, so take it as you will. Probably more importantly, McCain had been making a pointed play for the Jewish vote, if there is such a monolith, by demonizing Obama as a radical Muslim who is anti-Israel and close to terrorists. In June, Obama led McCain by 62-31 among Jewish voters according to their own poll; as Obama has become much better known over the last few months, he has put paid to those rumors and expanded that lead to 74-22, with a five point spike in October alone. Oddly, according to this survey, older Jewish voters actually prefer Obama by a larger margin (74-19) than younger (67-29). This may speak to a modest and gradual erosion of the traditional identification of Jews with the Democratic party over the last twenty-five years or so, although the same percentage of the 18-34s in the survey consider themselves conservative as those 55 and up. Ultimately, this survey shows Jewish voters likely to vote for the Obama/Biden ticket about in line with Democratic candidates in prior elections.
Quick State Of The States
Lots of state data today, so let's move right in. Rasmussen has a Georgia poll, showing a five point McCain lead, down from nine earlier in the month. It's going to be a tough row to hoe, with 70% of white voters supporting McCain. Needless to say, Georgia is not 75% Republican. Early voting and African-American turnout will be the key here; remember 29% of Georgians are black. InsiderAdvantage actually has Obama up one in the state, with even less of the white vote, so they must be trying to extrapolate a greatly expanded African-American vote. There's also a Minnesota poll, but we can stick a fork in that one with a 15 point Obama lead. In North Carolina Rasmussen has McCain taking a two point lead again, after a three point lead early in the week and tie in their survey a week ago. Interestingly, for what it's worth, which isn't a lot, both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets have Obama as about a 2-1 favorite to take the state, which seems a little optimistic for the Democratic side for me. Montana State University at Billings has a home state poll surprisingly showing Obama ahead by 4 points in the Big Sky State, but with a large undecided component; hard to imagine that one turns blue, though with popular Democratic Governor and Senators, anything's possible. I'll just cherrypick a few more here, ignoring the states where one candidate or another is up in the 20s: the Miami Herald has a seven point Obama lead in Florida; of course, Sen. McCain is campaigning heavily in the state, and that's one I'm still uncertain of myself. SUSA has polls in Indiana showing a four point Obama lead, probably makes more sense than yesterday's Big Ten poll showing a ten point margin. In Kansas, SUSA has McCain up 10, which is no surprise, and a 12 point Obama lead in Pennsylvania, in line with other polls but much broader than the Obama campaign's internal polls, which I still think were "leaked" to make sure the base didn't go home to bed two weeks early. National Journal has a 13 point Obama edge in Wisconsin, in line with Big Ten's 12 point lead, and 10 in PA as well, also in line with everyone else. Oh, that's probably enough for now.
CBS/NY Times Poll Opens Further, Now 13 Points
A new CBS/New York Times poll shows Obama with a 52-39 lead, the same 13 points that their re-examination of respondents they first interviewed before the debates turned up. This is actually one point tighter than their prior poll a week ago, and shows a narrower Obama lead among independents. Only five percent say they're still undecided, and this would be a difficult gap to make up, in the absence of the proverbial October (or November) surprise, which does not include a Tampa Bay win in the World Series. Obama still holds a six point lead among independents, though at 45-39, there's still a significant undecided component to this segment. The usual criteria apply--62% say they feel personally comfortable with Obama, compared with only 47% for McCain; indeed 49% say they feel "uneasy" with the Arizonan, compared with only 34% for Obama, which argues that the McCain campaign strategy of demonizing the Democrat is falling on deaf ears. On the question of quality of campaign, a trend we've been seeing for weeks opens up even further--now 64% say McCain is spending more time attacking than explaining, up from 53% a month ago; only 22% say the same of Obama. While it's often been shown that negative campaigning works, the difference between the two is so great that it appears to have made people sit up and take notice. As usual, Obama is seen as the far better candidate on economic issues, and holds a vast advantage on the question of temperament, with 75% saying he has the temperament and personality to be president, while only 50% say McCain has. The two are about even on Iraq, but Obama holds another significant advantage on health care, with 69% of respondents having confidence in his ability to handle health care compared wtih only 41% for McCain. Finally, on net favorables, Obama is at +21 (52-31), while McCain is now solidly negative at -7 (39-46). John McCain has done a mind-boggling job of taking a sterling reputation (whether deserved or not is another question entirely), throwing it in the muck and stomping repeatedly; unfortunately for him, that reputation was his own.
The Palin Effect seems to hold here too, by the way, with net unfavorables at -9 compared with +23 for Joe Biden, even if he does open his mouth and let out a whopper from time to time, that's viewed as "Joe being Joe" while she's increasingly seen as clueless, mendacious, and now, with the wardrobe issue, venal. Obama has a nine point lead among men in this survey, which seems a little high to me right now. He's also got a ten point lead with white working class voters in this survey, another demographic widely viewed as a potential problem. At the same time, he only has 78% of self- described Hillary Clinton primary voters, but we're getting into a smallish sample of a sample at this point. McCain's most recent point, that he needs to be elected as a counterpoint to a massive Democratic majority in Congress, seems not to be well accepted by respondents, with a small margin agreeing. I'd point out that this strategy implies that McCain has thrown the RNCC under a bus, presumably a different bus from the one the RNCC is in the process of throwing him under simultaneously. Troublingly, though, over 30% of respondents say they know someone not voting for Obama because of his race. I don't want to go overboard with my suggestion that an Obama victory will cause a massive re-assessment of Americans' attitudes towards race; no vote is ever unanimous. I'm also concerned because while the base party ID difference is about in line with many polls, there's a weighted number also that dramatically overweights Democrats. Depending on where the weighted number is used, and the poll is unclear about that, the results could overemphasize the scope of Obama's support. This poll also may not weight by age, which would be curious.
Randy Bachman Clearly More Popular Than Michele
I'm delighted to point out that the BTO riff I stumbled upon yesterday generated significant positive comment. Reader Evan (how's that sound?) quite rightly pointed out that the future ex-Congresswoman "wasn't Lookin' Out For #1," and that "at the rate things are going she'll be ready to Roll On Down The Highway after Election Day." Another notes that the music teacher at the prep school that she and a couple members of the awesomely legendary band attended told them they wouldn't go far. Personally, I'd figured this had gone far enough, but now I'm prepared to Let It Ride, being the Free Wheelin' kind of guy I am. Question is, will Rep. Bachmann be willing (or, for that matter, even able) to Take It Like A Man on November 5? You know who will Take It Like A Man? Elwyn Tinklenberg.
How Low Can You Go?
OK, time for everyone to get a little sick to their respective stomachs. Are you ready? Then let's begin. So how long did you think it would be before some underevolved creep found a way to trash Obama for leaving the campaign to spend a couple days with his gravely ill grandmother? If your over/under was about an hour, then today's Homunculus Of The Day (TM) is just for you: future ex-GOP strategist Brad Blakeman, when asked about the $150,000 expenditure on Gov. Palin's wardrobe during a recession, immediately changed the subject, though I'm not sure if he's blaming Obama or his grandmother: "taking a 767 campaign plane to go visit Grandma. Forget about the energy that is wasted, what about the hundreds of thousands of dollars to take a private trip when this guy should be humping his bags on a commercial plane or taking a smaller plane. Taking a 767 of campaign money from people who could least afford it is more of an outrage in my opinion." MSNBC anchor David Schuster, who could not restrain his disgusted laughter, responded "That is one of the most valiant tries I have ever seen in this entire debate about Sarah Palin's clothing allowance."
Fox News EVP Suggests McCain Campaign Is Over If Girl Assaulted By Scary Black Man Is Making Story Up; Girl Assaulted By Scary Black Man Admits To Making Story Up
Yet, it gets even worse than this. Remember the horrible story yesterday about a young female McCain volunteer in Pittsburgh who was mugged and horribly beaten by a black man who took exception to her McCain bumper sticker after she had taken money from an ATM, even going to the curious extreme of cutting a backwards "B" in her right cheek? Well, the backwardness of the letter might have been a bit of a giveaway, because apparently nobody told her that a mirror image comes out in reverse. Today, the Pittsburgh Police Department, reported by KDKA, has announced that the young volunteer made up her story and that the woman, Ashley Todd (I wonder if Senator McCain will tell supporters to send emails to show their support for Ashley The Race-Baiter?), had taken a polygraph test and confessed to making up the story. The backwards B, the fact that there are actually video cameras at ATMs and the one she claimed to have taken money from had no record of her, and she changed her story as to whether or not she was sexually assaulted. Read all about it at http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08298/922564-100.stm?cmpid=news.xml and http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html. Fox News Executive Vice President John Moody commented on his blog that ""this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election. If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee. If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting." We won't mention that it was Matt Drudge's top story for a while, shall we? Nah. I wonder if Mr. Moody still believes the campaign is over. Check out the blog now before the ever-honorable Fox pulls it: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/23/jmoody_1023/
McCain Says Using Campaign Funds For Clothing Is....Bad?
In 1993, when there was a $200 Clinton haircut to be up in arms about, a certain Arizona Senator said "the use of campaign funds for items which most American swould consider to be strictly personal reasons, in my view, erodes public confidence and erodes it significantly." He specifically mentions clothing as one of the items that his proposed amendment to the Congressional Spending Limit And Election Reform Act Of 1993. Perhaps the difference is that this is a presidential election, and his amendment was only for congressional elections? Feh. You can find it on a bunch o' progressive web sites, with LOLZ galore, or in the Congressional Record. Srsly.
Meow!
There's just so much more, but there's way too much here. So for a quick look at the backbiting, name-calling, and brickbat-throwing going on between the McCain campaign and Bush administration, look here: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html. A few choice quotes:
“If you really want to see what ‘going negative’ is in politics, just watch the back-stabbing and blame game that we’re starting to see,” said Mark McKinnon, the ad man who left the campaign after McCain wrapped up the GOP primary. “And there’s one common theme: Everyone who wasn’t part of the campaign could have done better.”
“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”
A House Republican leadership aide in an e-mail was no more complimentary: “The staff has been remarkably undisciplined, too eager to point fingers, unable to craft any coherent long-term strategy. The handling of Palin (not her performances, but her rollout and availability) has been nothing short of political malpractice."
Oh, and the New York Times endorsed Senator Obama.
See you tomorrow! Elwyn Tinklenberg.
John