Due to semi-popular demand, rather than repeat and contradict myself on a daily basis to a bunch of people who for some unknowable reason want my opinion on these things, I may make this a semi-regular note, so I might have to start writing in complete sentences. I'm combining some mailing lists I've talked to about this stuff here, so if any of you don't give a crap, let me know and I'll take you off the list and see if I can sign you up for an online gift subscription to Garfield Classics instead--I understand on the best of authority that that wacky kittycat STILL hates Mondays!
As usual, don't expect serious analysis; there are plenty of guys out there who do it better than I do, so I'll stick to raw data and marginal witticisms. Second day in a row of slight shift to Obama in all four polls, which may mean something because it's all of them, but It's still all well within the sampling error (which I believe is generally underestimated, making it even harder to decipher, but don't have my fourth semester stats text on Experiment Design with me at the Chateau to prove it!). Here they are, with yesterday's in parentheses:
Rasmussen McCain 48 Obama 47 (49-47)
R2K Obama 48 McCain 44 (47-44)
Diageo Hotline Obama 46 McCain 42 (44-43)
Gallup McCain 47 Obama 46 (47-45)
As always, forget the pinch and take with a whole damn shaker of salt. Palin's net favorables are fading fairly dramatically (though still well in positive territory, where I expect they'll stay), but all that means is that she'll probably become a non-issue and like every other presidential election ever, it will be a race between the two Actual Candidates. If Dan Quayle didn't hurt George HW Bush, Sarah Palin isn't likely much to hurt the old dude, though watch out for the nickname "Slick Sally" being bandied about corners of the press--if that turns into a meme, could be trouble.
Today's political hot potato will be the bailout or not of AIG; having picked up the tab for BSC and then refused to do the same for LEH, it's a sticky situation (if a potato can simultaneously be both hot and sticky--if you know, please keep it to yourself). AIG is much more of a Main Street issue, as opposed to the strictly Wall Street nature of the former two. If AIG shatters, everyone gets hit by flying glass. Paulson/Bernanke found out just how far their ability to persuade, cajole, and coerce goes when they asked the banks to pony up $75BB to tide AIG over for a bit and the banks told the administration and Fed to go piss up the proverbial rope. Fasten your seatbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
Now go out and get some sun; you spend too much time indoors.
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