September 27, Daily Polling Update, Mississippi Mud Edition

Let's bear in mind that yesterday's polling was done before the debate, but even so it would appear that, to a degree, John McCain's "will he or won't he" maneuvers were viewed at least moderately skeptically by a public all too willing to view politicians all too skeptically. R2K moves up a point for Obama, as, perhaps more importantly, does Rasmussen, to the greatest advantage he has held yet in that poll. Diageo narrows from a 7 to 5 point lead with no other information. Gallup, however, which had been tied as recently as Thursday, has now opened up to a five point lead. The only thing I can take away from this is what we already knew: that it's too early to pay too much attention to the dailies, and even the trends sometimes don't make a whole lot of sense. Either because nobody felt like bothering because the whole game would change in the aftermath of last night's debate or because it was Saturday and employees of the polling firms are all big time college football fans, there's next to nothing in terms of internals released today, so the heck with the lot of them.



We're beginning to get to crunch time, though, as the first state-level tracking poll, in Pennsylvania from the morningcall.com http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/state/all-a1_5poll.6604193sep26,0,1738520.story has begun to come in. It's a little too early to bother other than to say that Obama has a four point lead, and that the site is great for Allentown/Bethlehem birth and tag sale notices.


Two Guys Walk Into An Auditorium In Mississippi
The debate itself was generally judged to be a modest Obama victory (personally, taking out expectations, I'd call it "tie goes to the runner" , but that may translate into greater Obama gains, as 1) it was questioned as to whether he would be able to hold his own in the foreign policy debate, 2) he seemed cool and collected, looking his opponent and the viewing audience in the eye while McCain seemed tetchy, occasionally smarmy and contemptuous, according to commentators and instant polling results and 3) Obama was able to score the two biggest shots of the evening (Spain and "you were wrong") despite taking far fewer of them. That being said, as the debates move into domestic policy, more viewed as Obama's home field, McCain has the opportunity to be viewed as the winner just by hanging in. The bracelet exchange (not that they traded jewelry or anything) seems to be generating a lot of day-after comment as well, mainly in Obama's favor; I found it a stirring moment on both sides, but Obama's response carried more weight, especially with parents. Other than a few digs, I found it informative but relatively uninspiring. That being said, I think that's what Obama wanted, and McCain didn't. Also, the level of discourse in general on both sides probably reached a level last night which will be impossible to attain for Sarah Palin in the VP debate, assuming she is still on the ticket by the end of the week (and if she's going, it's going to happen before the debate).

Post debate surveys were as follows:

Obama McCain CNN 51 38 including a 21 point lead on the economy, 25 on "more intelligent," and 27 on "expressed views more clearly," while McCain "spent more time attacking his opponent" by 60-23. Perhaps more importantly, Obama scored a 12 point lead on "was more sincere," a full 35 points head on "was more likable," and biggest of all, beat McCain by 49-43 on "seemed to be the better leader."
CBS 39 24 Poll of uncommitted voters, no surprise 37% thought it a draw. 46% said their view of Obama improved, while 32% said the same of McCain. 66% said Obama would make right decisions on the economy, while 42% said McCain would. Respondents noted McCain as being "angry and bad-tempered" and "didn't control himself well under pressure" while Obama won style points for poise.

Here, There, And Everywhere
Personally, I felt that McCain's moves seemed more erratic than heroic, and let's not discount the Letterman effect--it's not, as his campaign said, a function of feeling it inappropriate to go on a comedy show during a crisis, as in fact McCain more or less announced his candidacy on the same show, implying that that was a moment of comedy? Even those who agree with his policies can not but accept that the McCain campaign once again is showing itself to be consistent only in its inconsistency. Historically, and particularly when we are looking for a break with the last eight years, the American public likes its presidents to be, well, Presidential, and if that includes a touch of the stolid, well, so be it. McCain's a gambler, both in life and politics, but there may be a point at which we would prefer our leaders not roll dice. The next few days will give us some real feeling, for the first time.

I'm going to do something I've been threatening to do almost since day one and hit send before it gets twice as long as I intended. See you tomorrow!

Best,

John

Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day (miss it yesterday? I did)
Words without action are the assassins of idealism. (NY Times, 29 April 1920)