other than a different sort of rounding error. R2K moves the other way, and I'd say the same thing, at least so far. There's really no identifiable reason for it, so I'm not going to try and make one up. It's still all mostly noise, so if you want to look at the table and skip the next three paragraphs til you get to the bit about Gallup's polling on Palin and white women, I wouldn't blame you in the least. Honest to gosh, I might have done the same, and I wrote the damn thing.
If there's one clear place where support for Obama seems to have a direct correlation, it's in concern about the economy. Despite the bailout, Rasmussen's polls show a steady though modest increase in respondents' concern and feeling that the economy is the biggest issue facing the nation; this seems to show up in improved results for Barack Obama. Rasmussen also reports favorables for the Vice Presidential choices today. I'm going to mention them and move the hell out. We've noted the party weighting in Rasmussen is perhaps a few points less Democratic than we feel it ought to be in 2008, and nowhere perhaps is the difference between Rasmussen and R2K's weightings (and one would assume, questioning style and overall survey design) more apparent than in the net favorables for the VP candidates. In Rasmussen, Palin is a +12, Biden +8. The undecideds are low, which suggests that people were forced to make a decision (there were only 3% undecided about Palin--polarizing candidate though she surely is, it's still September, guys)--this is also true in the Presidential poll, where there are only 4% undecided. I know they include leaners, but they're pushing too hard.
In R2K, the movement was all within independent voters, and voters between 30-59. Independents make up 30% of the survey, and picked up 2 points in McCain's direction. You can either see that as utterly momentous or complete random noise; I tend to the latter in the absence of further information, especially given that McCain's net favorables in this poll did not change at +1 (compared with much higher results in Rasmussen) and Obama's dropped by 2 points from +21 to +19. I've talked myself blue in the face about how I feel there's design error in both these polls, so I don't think I can face it again. To sum though, the poll where the net favorables massively favor Obama just moved one point in McCain's favor, while the one where the favorables seem to be even just moved a point in Obama's favor. Go figure.
Diageo moves a point towards Obama; in sum, "it's the economy, stupid." They polled regarding Sarah Palin's preparedness, and the numbers, if they represent a trend, may have the Republicans putting Mitt Romney back on speed dial. Gallup is flat a 47-44, and there's not a whole heck of a lot to say about that, is there?
Gallup does have a much more interesting poll out today asking whether the Palin choice has helped McCain among white women, and their poll suggests there has been minimal change. I like this result, mostly because it's what Iv'e been saying all along. Their data shows that McCain had a 9 point lead among white women before the Democratic convention in August, which expanded to 11 points during the height of Palinmania, but which has now settled at an all time low of a 2 point advantage, the biggest difference being that undecideds have moved towards Obama as more is discovered about who the GOP running mate is. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest gains for the Palin/McCain (oops) campaign are among non-college-educated white woman aged 30-49. If they think it's because Sarah Palin is like them, they should consider paying more attention to someone who isn't Sean Hannity. When I say Sarah Palin is a polarizing figure, that doesn't just mean she solidifies the base on the right.
Back to what i swore I wouldn't talk much about any more, but now feel forced to, Party ID. I have two good reasons for this; three if you consider that I'm probably still a little groggy from being on a plane overnight as one of them. First, Gallup yesterday released a poll showing that in their large sample, 49% of respondents identified as Democrats, while 39% did as Republicans. This 10 point difference is in fact higher than even the 9.1% difference in the R2K poll. This 10 point advantage had shrunk to 5 after the Republican Convention, but with the bloom off the rose and petals flying around everywhere getting into awkward difficult-to-reach places, the number is back to a steady state situation.
The final reason I mention it is that party ID seemed to be the one thing the McCain campaign hadn't complained about yet. Well, strike that one off the list. Bill McInturff, McCain's own pollster held a conference call (first red flag, remember the conference call we discussed yesterday and how it didnt' exactly HELP matters much) to suggest that the latest ABC News/WaPo poll overcounted Democrats. ABC addresses the issue at some length at http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/. Looks like they were using a number of about +7 which is where McInturff himself had suggested the election was likely to turn out, not that I'm suggesting that just because a McCain staffer said something one day that it obtains the next (that's what YouTube is for, guys). McInturff, who should have known a lot better himself, and should have known that ABC's pollsters would know better, was focusing on one not terribly relevant way of looking at voters which favored Democrats more and which would have been more pro-Obama had it actually been the methodology ABC used in deriving their results. ABC includes on their page their breakdown through the polling season; the McCain campaign has never discussed their own internals--surely it's easier to have a discussion about two divergent points of view if the other guy tells you what his point of view is rather than just that yours is kind of sucky? Dewd, whateverrrrrr...
OK, I'm going to work on adding graphical material here now that I'm on my home system, such as it is, and cutting back some things that need cutting back. If I have to learn a new email program to do this, you owe me. Have no fear, though--the Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day will not perish from the earth.
Groggily,
John
And now...the Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day (TM):
It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own.
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