So what have we got here? A whole bunch of not a whole bunch. Maybe it's interesting that Rasmussen, with the least Democratic party ID weighting, continues to show Obama inching ahead. Maybe it's not. I find it curious that their poll has both candidates viewed favorably by over 50% of the electorate (Obama by 56%, McCain by 55%), but if I were to list everything I find curious in these polls every day, this note, which is already probably longer than it should be, would just get ridiculous. Rasmussen has its own Intrade-type thing, which now shows a 58% chance of an Obama victory. I'm inherently skeptical of unregulated markets (can't imagine why), and would do my best to ignore all this, I think the rapidly shifting probabilities at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com do a better job of tracking the trends in how voter attitudes are changing so far ahead of the actual election.
Diageo continues to show an increasing number of respondents saying the economy is the most important issue (58% now, up two points from yesterday); I think we need to have a chat with the other 42. Also, Obama leads by an increasing number in this poll when asked who would do a better job of handling the economy, though the lead is still just seven points, at 45-38. They also show an increasing number agreeing that government needs to take a larger role in oversight of financial markets, even if people in general are buying politicians' (on both sides) pseudo-populist claims that this is a terrible deal for Americans. Populism wins votes in 2008, so everyone's a populist. Get over yourselves, and fast.
In general, it seems (looking at some other polls that aren't dailies as well) that Republican-leaning polls have positive early returns for McCain's comments yesterday, while others track in the other direction. We'll see how that plays out over the next few days. If I'm McCain, I probably want to cancel the debate: first, though it's supposed to be about foreign policy, where I'm supposedly strong, I really don't have a lot of credentials in the area, which may become apparent in a debate and second, everyone's just going to ask about the economy anyway, where I've gone out of my way in the past to say I have no credentials, however much I try to create a new context for those remarks now. Also, if I can push the debate back a week, that coincides with the Vice Presidential debate, which I can then "postpone" permanently because I have a pretty good idea by this point how my running mate will show when asked questions alongside someone who's made a career of answering them. Problem is, some people might get wise to this. Yeah, some people.
On the state side, Rasmussen has a poll in North Carolina (see yesterday's note regarding a potential Reverse Bradley Effect), showing Obama with a two point lead in the normally solid red state, a three point lead in Pennsylvania, and McCain ahead mid-single digits in Florida and Ohio. A couple other Pennsylvania polls showed varying results for Obama, with Strategic Vision (typically with a few point GOP lean) having him just up one point, but CNN (with a couple point Democratic lean) up eight. Mason-Dixon confirms Rasmussen in Virginia, up three. Colorado looks decent for Obama in three polls released yesterday, with leads of three to nine points. Other states are about as expected, and we dont need to spend a lot of time talking about McCain's 21 point lead in Alabama or Obama's 41 point advantage in Hawaii, do we? Nah, didn't think so.
Palin's Eisenhower Moment
Gov. Palin's interview with Katie Couric is probably worth seeing, but it's really not my place here to discuss it. However, there was one moment that I found incredibly telling, and drew a parallel in my mind to 1960. When asked over and over again by an increasingly exasperated (if you can believe that, and I couldn't) Couric to name one area in which Sen. McCain has been in favor of regulation in 26 years in Washington, the governor finally got all spunky and said that she'd get back to Ms. Couric on it. Did anyone else think of Eisenhower in 1960 being asked to name a single policy initiative that Nixon had been responsible for and replying, "If you give me a week, I might think of one?" May have done more damage to Tricky Dick's campaign than televised five o'clock shadow and Joe Kennedy's money in Illinois combined. She's not going to be compared to Eisenhower that often, so if you're a fan, take it when you can.
OK, Exhale
You know, I realize I sound partisan up there, and honestly I work very hard not to be, but if there's one service a "behind the numbers" sort of note can provide, it's to cut through the layers of confusion, sample design error, and just outright bulls--t that all surveys, and particularly those with politicians involved, can pile up on a bizarrely unsuspecting populace. I say this because I find it very diffcult to see the ostensible suspension of the McCain campaign (and in what way are you suspending the campaign if you're spending the entire time of the suspension being interviewed and giving speeches?) and insistence that the debate not go on as planned just plain dishonest. I was going to say "disingenuous," but that wont' cover it. Reagan and Carter debated in 1980 when hostages were being held in Iran, Bush and Gore debated in 2000 in the aftermath of the bombing of the USS Cole, there was a presidential campaign in 1932 in the depths of the Depression, so why do you need to suspend a campaign because some other people are working out a plan to save the financial system from collapse? Seriously, if you buy that, you deserve what you get. Media, even outlets such as the not-typically-flaming-left-wing Wall Street Journal, are choking on it. The dirty but quite large secret here is that the Journal, better than most, knows that while markets like tax cuts, what they like most of all is stability, and that is the one thing that the McCain/Palin campaign is not giving them.
Anyway, apologies for a bit more of what appears to be rant than usual, but if I can't call "bulls--t" when I see it, and explain why and how, this is probably a waste of time. I'll call it on the other side one day too, I promise, it's just that he keeps doing annoying things like acting calm, collected, and what used to be called Presidential, darn him.
Tune in again tomorrow for another exciting episode, and as always, thanks for the kind words and referrals to friends, neighbors, enemies, etc. and perhaps most of all for keeping the unkind words to yourselves, fragile male ego being what it is and all.
John
And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, the Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day (TM):
Wisdom oft times consists of knowing what to do next.
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