It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
The particular firebrand who is responsible for this bit of anti-American theorizing? No less than Adam Smith, on whose thought it is not too much of a leap to suggest modern capitalism was based and without whom it never would have existed in its current form (see John McCain quote at bottom). If the Republican platform is now to repudiate Adam Smith, it's difficult to see that there's any economic philosophy at all behind it. Of course, being from the Windy City, Sen. Obama is the one with ties in to the Chicago School (which, incidentally, is not known for producing communists). I went to the Reagan Library (named for the former President, who greatly increased the Earned Income Tax Credit) on a recent trip to California and took a few pictures. The GOP seems to have gone to the gravesite, spat out the word "socialist," and hawked a loogie.
Now, on to our show, which is a little different today because there was so much poll data in yesterday's, and some philosophical issues to go over here. It's definitely safe to say the tightening in the polls was zomg just so last week lol.
Let's make it clear I am not speaking about the campaign or the race, but the wheels seem to be falling off John McCain himself. Couple McCain gaffes at a rally in Pennsylvania show a tired, confused candidate saying he couldn't "agree more" with negative comments made about the people of the area, tripping over words to correct and then re-correct himself. Campaign ugly factor steps way up, with McCain mailing piece with the word "terrrorists" on front and a large picture of Obama inside. Gov. Palin agrees to release of medical records, leaving Sen. McCain as the only one who has not. McCain/Palin interview shows a team with zero chemistry. Palin's Paris Hilton-like clothing budget won't leave the news cycle, may end up getting more play than Troopergate; seems like just another bit of common or garden hypocrisy to me, watch for pictures of her juxtaposed with Time Magazine shot of Obama on phone with feet on table showing holes in soles of shoes. NRCC cuts off Michele "Joe McCarthy was a wuss" Bachmann's funding as Elwyn Tinklenberg (Elwyn Tinklenberg) raises a million dollars since her investigation comment and the DNCC matches. Obama camp intentionally accidentally leaks an internal poll of PA showing themselves with only a two point lead, not the double digit margin of independent pollsters(pollster.com, whose methodology I think is a bit simplistic, calls it 15, fivethirtyeight.com mathgeeks it out to just under 10); I'd call that a move to scare supporters out of complacency rather than incompetence. Obama off to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother; it will be very interesting to see if the GOP launches a new line of attack while he's at her bedside. Would be a poor choice in a campaign full of them.
ABC/WaPo opens to an 11 point Obama lead, but more wobbliness rather than any hard info
Diageo/Hotline flat but with fewer undecideds, unrealistically wide gender gap (Obama +17 with women, McCain +8 with men--could be the only way Palin is helping? Nah.), net favorables actually higher for McCain than Obama, which completes the argument for one really weird day in the small sample polling
Gallup tightens up but for no apparent reason, though they suggest there will be no influx of new voters
GWU/Battleground squeaks open another point for Obama, to three, but by taking one point off him and two off McCain--are more people undecided now than two weeks ago? Hardly.
Rasmussen, who I have come to trust more than the others, despite a slight GOP bias, opens up to a seven point Obama lead, the largest in nearly two weeks
R2K hangs steady at 10, you could dry your clothes on this trendline
Zogby now 11.9, I was actually only joking a few days ago when I said it was gaining 2.7 points a day from now til Nov 4, you know
John Zogby has a commentary, but it's nothing new, suggesting that Obama is connecting, but McCain is not. McCain is getting "lost in issues that are not in people's minds." There are "some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980." I still don't like the way his poll is set up, but any time one of the pollsters decides to come out and say exactly what I"ve been saying all along, I feel duty bound to present it to you. Zogby then goes on to defend his sample, pointing out high numbers of college-educated respondents, Hispanics, young people, and "more Republicans in our sample than anyone else." Well, it's possible he's right about all that, and it's also possible he's bragging about getting the demographics all wrong. A 29% edge among independents tells me something's screwy.
A few state polls, but more of the same. Mason-Dixon has a slight McCain shift in Florida, where the Senator now leads by a point. In Nevada, CNN/Time has Obama up by 5, and four in North Carolina, while a poll for local TV station WSOC shows Obama +2 in the Tar Heel State. CNN also has an Ohio poll with Obama +4; maybe I'm just twice bitten thrice shy, but I can't get that state out of the McCain column in my head. In an interesting split, CNN has Virginia with Obama +10 and Mason-Dixon just a two point lead, but that's a five point swing from his last McCain +3, and he tends to lag a bit, especially when a Republican is leading. A couple polls in Wisconsin explain why the RNC took their money out of the state, both with double digit Obama leads.
Big Ten and Quinnipiac, neither of whom I particularly like, have a bunch o' state polls this morning, pretty much massively favoring Obama. Big Ten has polls in eight states, all of which hold significant Obama leads. We're not too surprised to hear about a 29 point lead in Illinois, but raise our eyebrows at 10 in Indiana, 13 in Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, and 12 in Ohio. In fact our eyebrows are raised into a highly skeptical sort of shape. However, they also did a national poll showing a 9 point Obama lead, which is not out of line. Quinnipiac has a five point Obama lead in Florida, down from eight on October 1, a similar 14 point lead in Ohio, up from eight, and 13 in Pennsylvania, similar to the 15 point lead last time round. Quinnipiac finds that Obama is doing surprisingly well among white evangelicals in PA and OH, and winning Roman Catholics in those states. It's funny; the race has really changed from one based on age, which no longer applies, to one where religion may be the best predictor. If Obama wins Roman Catholics, this will not be a close race at all.
NBC Interview Truly Disconcerting, But I Wasn't Wearing Those Really Cool French Sunglasses WIth The Rose-Colored Lenses I Got In LA
I watched the McCain/Palin interview with Brian Williams, who I found reasonably deferential to the Senator. I had some serious issues with what I saw. First, it really looked like there was absolutely no chemistry between the two; Palin seemed like she wanted to be in charge of the process and McCain didn't seem terribly happy with that. Gov. Palin interrupted her boss several times in her usual forceful tone while he was speaking more softly; it really felt as though she were hijacking the campaign bus. Without turning this into a transcript of the interview and just keeping it my personal observations, it seems to me that one of the conservatives who has thrown John McCain under the bus is Sarah Palin, and one of the mainstream Republicans who believes Sarah Palin has brought down the McCain candidacy is John McCain. Gosh, this will be interesting if they win.
We've Said It Before: If It's A Single-Issue Campaign, Get The Damn Issue Right
The McCain campaign has moved on. The current meme of the week is "Socialism." It's not really working for a variety of reasons: first, Obama's plan is not socialism, especially in light of the financial rescue plan that is not too far away from the state seizing the means of production; second, most people sort of liked the New Deal, though this doesn't go remotely as far (and many others spent the next 50 years screaming "socialism" about it); finally, when a campaign is about a single issue, you'd better be sure that your criticism of your opponent doesn't marginalize the issue, or you'll marginalize yourself. Starting with "fundamentally strong," moving on to "turn the page on the economy," and now ridiculing Obama's tax plan when your own contradicts not Karl Marx but Adam Goddam Smith, may not be the best way to approach the issue.
Bachmann Affair Turning Into Overdrive While Elwyn Tinklenberg Is Taking Care Of Business; DNCC Says "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"
This is a lot more important than one crackpot Congressman, and I think the Republican Party is doing exactly the right thing here. It has been reported that the NRCC has cut off ad spending for Michele Bachmann in light of her comment to Chris Matthews that Congress needs to be investigated for anti-American sentiment. Now, this is not the first time that she's done something loopy; trust me, I use the word "crackpot" advisedly. Remember, she
--attached herself to an uncomfortable President Bush after the State of the Union like a crazed teenybopper trying to tear out a bit of her idol's hair and wouldn't let go til she kissed him on the lips, --later mused to an interviewer on what kind of frozen custard the President of the United States orders, --was photographed hiding behind a lamppost spying on a gay rights rally (the stories say bushes, but trust me, I'm looking at the picture, it's a lamppost. Problem with that is that lampposts are really really narrow and provide unsatisfactory cover for anyone much wider than, say, Victoria Beckham), --explained that Iran would be partitioning Iraq to create the "Iraq State of Islam, something like that" in the "western, northern portion," which she then retracted either because she was exposing classified information or just making everything up --had photos of her taken vacuuming in heels to show that--well, frankly, I don't have a damned clue what she was showing there, --called a news conference to--wait for it--denounce the use of fluorescent light bulbs because they contain mercury and introduced a bill to halt a program designed to phase out the use of old-fashioned, inefficient incandescent bulbs, causing great ridicule even among GOP colleagues.
If you dare, you can read her blog posts at townhall.com but bring a barf bag, whichever party you belong to. Emesis is non-partisan.
So her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg (you know, I still enjoy saying that) has raised over a million dollars since this flap began, and the DNCC has now stated that they'd be matching it. Tinklenberg has been running new ads in the greater Saint Cloud megalopolis, positive ones focusing on his achievement, which apparently do not involve anything you'd need to look up in the DSM-IV.
Trying To Avoid A Permanent Republican Minority
The GOP is quite right in distancing itself from Bachmann; there are far too many Michele Bachmanns in senior and indeed elected positions in the party, and with a vastly unpopular president, an election it believes it will lose, and the prospects of massive Democratic majorities in House and Senate for a time when it is likely one or more Supreme Court seats will become open, the last thing it needs is to be viewed by the American public as a home for whackjobs and extremists. Kind of funny that I'm excoriating Rep. Bachmann for wanting to investigate thought crime and recommending a purge, but I think it's what the GOP must do if it does not want to marginalize itself for quite a long time. On the other hand, if it does not do this, and becomes the party of the Bachmanns and Robin Hayeseseses and Sarah Palins, a different sort of realignment is not out of the question looking down the road within the next decade or so.
PS. Elwyn Tinklenberg.
We'll let John McCain have the Second Quote Of The Day; McCain's comments to a brain-dead college student at a rally at Michigan State University in 2000.
Audience member: "Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor."
McCain: "I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more."
Audience member: "Are we getting closer and closer to, like, socialism?"
McCain: "Here's what I really believe: That when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more."
Here, with comment, is Jon Stewart's take on it: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=189119&title=mccain-says-the-s-word
OK, that's it. You've had enough. Give me the keys, I'm calling a taxi.
John
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