October 14 Daily Polling Roundup, These Go To Eleven Edition

The slight McCain momentum of the last few days seems to be coming to a halt, and at least two polls show a reversal, though they're the two I'd consider most unreliable. Closing in on the final debate, John McCain's last true hope to turn the tide--the one time a lead this large was turned around this late in the campaign was in 1980, when Reagan and Carter had their only debate a week before the election. McCain will kiss and make up with David Letterman, while legendary North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith has endorsed Barack Obama. Don't laugh at that one. Whether that will require Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski to back McCain uncertain at press time. Despite Gov. Palin's curiously Orwellian statement that she has been exonerated when in fact the report only said she broke no laws in the firing of the state Public Safety Commissioner, Troopergate seems to be expanding as further ethics complaints are filed, the question of who paid for the family house I mentioned the other day begins to get national attention, and the Anchorage Daily News, which really doesn't have a lot else to talk about, is all over the story. Markets are flying, but for gosh sakes, there's a recession going on, earnings are going to disappoint, and there will will will will will be loads of restructuring announcements with layoffs. Those tend not to make markets rise. Trust me on that. Please.

Diageo/Hotline flat, but McCain losing advantage among white women, so it's hard to tell where he's gaining, as it's not white men
Gallup stays flattish, a little extra support for McCain, but new voters cancel it out
GWU/Battleground opens by five points on the same day firm founder Lance Tarrance denies there ever was a Bradley Effect. We say "bushwa." Or something.
R2K drops back a point to an 11 point lead, still nothing interesting
Rasmussen flat for third day running, but voters like Obama's tax hike on top incomes by 47-31 majority
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby opens up to six, but it's still too damn choppy



Gallup is being a little frustrating, publishing three different numbers, in an effort to avoid making an actual call. All the other polls we follow have moved from surveys of registered voters to "likely voters." Gallup is sort of doing that, but publishing two different likely voters numbers next to the registered voters, one based on current intentions and 2004 voting patterns, and one just based on current intentions. I think that this year's election is so different from recent contests that I'm not sure how much value there is in what happened four years ago, between the recession, a vastly unpopular incumbent, and massive voter registration drives particularly among young people. I haven't quite decided how to deal with it, so you'll just get them all for now, and I'd say pay more attention to the second (trend-free) likely voter number. Incidentally, likely voter surveys tend to be tighter than polls of registered voters. What's interesting here is that today shows a one-point bump for McCain among voters who did in fact vote in 2004, but a flat line for voters who did not, showing a distinct influence in the polling of newly registered voters, which has been a key Obama campaign goal from the outset, and who are probably underrepresented in all polling data.

Let's keep talking Gallup, since we haven't done that for a while. They've also got an issues-based poll out, showing a clear Obama win on the economy (and I hope this borrowed graphic, courtesy Gallup, works). Around the time of the Republican convention the gap on the economy closed up, but has been consistently widening ever since. This is consistent with every other poll with the exception of Hotline, which still shows it fairly close. I can't find another one that does, though, and I'm looking.



McCain still wins on terrorism, but Obama has pulled into a virtual tie on Iraq, and has significant leads on the issues of healthcare policy, energy, and taxes.

GQR has a national poll out showing Obama up by 50-40, without leaners it's 49-39. Somehow they actually manage to find 3% for Bob Barr and 2% for Ralph Nader; don't ask me how. But when they forced people to choose between one or the other, it came out 51-42 Obama. As usual, Obama has the highest favorables in this poll as well, Gov. Palin the lowest. Obama wins on all character-based questions and all issues except national security, which is the same low-teens advantage for McCain as in pretty much all the surveys we see.

Unlike some other polls, I think this one has a healthy dose of realism in the self-identification. We've seen a few lately , most notably I believe Zogby and a new poll from, of all people, Investors Business Daily (which I will not be including here if they don't provide internals) which play down identification as "moderate" in favor of pushing people to "liberal" or "conservative." I think more people in general would call themselves moderates if they weren't bullied to do something else, and the fact that this poll breaks down 18% liberal, 38% moderate, 40% conservative, may have a healthy dose of realism to it. That being said, this poll may undercount black voters (11%, about in line with 2004) and younger voters, so there could be a hidden advantage to Obama in there. Perhaps most importantly of all, this poll comprises respondents who voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a three-point margin in 2004, similar to the actual election itself. That a three point 2004 edge to the Republican can translate to a 10 point lead to the Democrat four years later signals a major shift in attitude and dissatisfaction with the way things are going in America, and may be important for Obama.
Pollster For Bradley's Opponent Says "No Bradley Effect Ever;" We Say, "Oh, Per-leeze."
The Battleground poll is still on probation with me,and a five point change in a day, especially at a time when nobody else is moving much, is why. It is amusing though, that longtime Republican pollster Lance Tarrance, who founded the firm that does the poll (he's no longer associated with it), who was George Deukmejian's pollster when he defeated Tom Bradley in their 1982 race for the California governor's office, denied there ever was a Bradley effect on the same day the black candidate expands his lead by five points. Well, of course Tarrance would say that--who would want to admit his candidate got the job because of the racism of the voters? Plus, if you're a Republican pollster (and Tarrance was a senior McCain advisor at one point) you want to find ways to spin an element of surprise into your candidate's potential stirring comeback. Anyway, his credibility is minimal, and it all makes me want to go back and look at his polls for Barry Goldwater. It's supposed to be here, but for some reason the link isn't working. Hmm. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html

In 97% White Maine, They Think There Is One
This from the Bangor Daily News, quoting several political science professors in the state, one of whom says he assumes that 5% of people who say race isn't a factor are lying. Now, that does not necessarily mean that you take five points off the African-American's score and add to the white guy's--a lot of people will have told the pollster that race isn't a factor along with their intention to vote for the white candidate already. You know I'm not yet convinced it's gone away, but this story actually gives me hope that I'm right in that it's become more upfront, or at least is included in polling data already. Just saying... http://bangornews.com/detail/91068.html

State Of The States
There are a bunch of state polls out, generally favoring Obama, though Survey USA, in recent years the best pollster on a state-by-state basis, has one in Georgia that seems to reflect reality more than Democratic hope, with McCain holding an 8 point edge. Crowds for early voting in predominantly African-American areas are still overwhelming, according to press and eye-witness reports, though. In other state reporting, Rasmussen has a tie in North Carolina, and Obama up by five in Florida, two in Ohio, three in Virginia and three in Missouri; while FL and OH are always battlegrounds, MO should be safe GOP territory and it would be a very bad sign for Sen. McCain if that state opened up for the Democrat. I'm just not convinced that any of them will. The Fargo Forum (insert "oh yah, you betcha" comment here) actually has Obama with a two point lead in North Dakota, of all places. Seems unlikely. Marist has a couple surveys out showing Obama up by four in Ohio and 12 in PA. Quinnipiac has polls in four more or less battleground states suggesting those particular battles are over, but we knew most of this already: Colorado 52-43, Michigan 54-38, Minnesota 51-40, Wisconsin 54-37.

There Will Too Not Too Be A New McCain Economic Plan
Well, there is a new McCain economic plan after all after saying on Sunday there would be, and Monday there wouldn't. OK. A girl can change her mind. A little belatedly, he's going after the Reagan mantle and pushing more tax cuts. However, as they're basically going to be capital gains and dividends, they'll once again mainly help the upper income brackets, who (unless they work on Wall Street, where even there they are vastly outnumbered by clerical and support staff) are not the ones being laid off. This recession is now about jobs. Cutting investment taxes is inane under those circumstances. They may also change their minds again, get a copy of Obama's plan, cross out the word "Obama" and write "McCain" in crayon on top.

Irrational Exuberance In A Bear Market
As I'd said yesterday, the concern I have with the markets' flying is that earnings are likely to come in soft (if S&P 500 earnings aren't down 25%, I'd be surprised) and that we're heading in to earnings season right now. When a company disappoints and restructures, it will often announce that restructuring at the same time as the disappointing earnings to soften the blow to investors. This morning Pepsico disappointed (by only about 10%) and announced it was cutting 3,300 jobs. if anyone thinks that's the last of these announcements instead of one of the first, I'll set up an offshore betting account. Additionally, Domino's Pizza missed this morning, with US sales down 6.1% and higher food costs hurting margins. Buy stocks if you want to because the sky isn't falling this week, but don't buy them because we're not in recession. We are.
If You Have No Enemies, Scapegoat Your Friends
So at an appearance in Richmond yesterday, complete with signs equating Obama with Islamist terror, a whackjob preacher saying God wants a McCain landslide, former Senator George "Macaca" Allen. Sarah Palin was doing her usual thing in front of a huge crowd, but apparently the sound system wasn't doing its. So naturally a group of people in the back started shouting "louder, louder!" People in the front, which must have been the deaf folks' section, having spent the last few weeks being incited to riot, started chanting "Sarah! Sarah!" as if "Louder!" was some kind of liberal ay-rab terrorist insult. The gov, clearly loving this so much she didn't stop to find out what the hell was going on, immediately chided her supporters, saying "I hope those protesters have the courage and honor to give veterans thanks for their right to protest" (you figure it out, I'm tired) Then the First Dude (TM) earned his keep by whispering in her ear "they just can't hear you back there. That's it." The sound system was not so faulty as not to catch his stage whisper. Aside from the fact that that's just really really really embarrassing to be caught live, it's also really really really distressing because it shows just how ready she is to foment ill feelings towards anyone she thinks might possibly differ from the crowd. We can all think of other examples where scapegoating was a major part of movement-building. Tthis is the person for whom that shriveled homunculus Bill Kristol is throwing John McCain under the bus in order to start pushing her 2012 presidential run.

Right. That's enough. You're cut off.

John

Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day:
The [people] are disgusted with seeking for power by destructive criticism, demagoguery, specious promises, and sham. (Statement to New York Tribune, 1920)