Diageo/Hotline opens up 2 for Obama to a ten point advantage, his largest lead ever in this one, while others close up, seems to be the battleground states we mentioned yesterday
Gallup flat with likely voters in both categories, I still think the one that does not follow prior trends is more appropriate this year
GWU/Battleground was Obama +13 on Tuesday, down to +4 today, despite a resounding debate win. Even with the pollster being in the tank for the GOP since 1964, this is ridiculous.
Rasmussen flat with yesterday, while state polls show a significant Obama lead in Republican Missouri but a tie in Ohio
R2K adds a point to McCain off a poor showing in yesterday's survey, but does not take votes away from Obama
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby narrows a bit despite widening his lead among independents to 19. Means there are too many Republicans or 25% of Democrats are voting for Ralph Nader. This is also a one-day sample with a huge margin of error (+/- 5). Knew I should never have put this one or Battleground in.
Rasmussen, while retaining just a narrow lead, also has what seems to be awfully good numbers for today, and their debate tracking should lead to gains in their survey for Obama over the next few days. It's a little closer than the other polls, which doesn't surprise me given that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican pollster (and may now get even more play on Fox News since Frank Luntz couldn't rig a focus group to say McCain won the debate), but still a 14 point Obama advantage, 47-33. Importantly, only 60% of Republicans thought he won the debate. I'm not sure how 1% of anyone could have thought that, other than turning it off after the first half hours--which I'd have scored in McCain's favor--or not watching at all and lying to the pollster. 51% thought Obama explained his posittions more clearly, while 33% thought McCain did. Again, I don't really remember a lot of places that McCain explained his positions in the debate; not that he doesn't have a clear platform, because he does, but it's hard to suggest objectively he spent a lot of time talking about it Wednesday night.
State Of The States
Rasmussen has a couple key state polls out today, at least one of which should be encouraging to the McCain camp. On the Obama side, they've got a Missouri poll out showing the Democrat with a six point lead, 52-46. If this isn't an outlier, it's very serious news for the GOP, which had counted on Missouri. If you're superstitious, you might note that the voters in the Show-Me State have picked the winner every election since Rome was a Republic other than a razor-thin victory for Adlai Stevenson in 1956, which I'll leave to you to decipher. It's hard to figure this one, as 22% approve of the economic rescue plan, while 52% disapprove, but both men voted for it, and McCain's trying to take credit for its passage may actually hurt him in some places. The candidates' net favorables are the same, and I think this one is tough to call.
Rasmussen also has the race tied in Ohio; I've been a skeptic on Obama-centric Ohio polls, but that's just me. The issue of the state GOP working to get potentially 200,000 new registrations (which would mostly go Democratic) invalidated took another twist today, when the Supreme Court invalidated a lower court ruling which would have made it nearly impossible for the new registrations to be declared valid. Make your own comedy bit out of the Ohio GOP taking voter fraud to the courts, it's too easy for me. I'll throw you a bone: if there hadn't been a conservative majority on the Court, the challenge might have been allowed, but was essentially invalidated on an issue of standing to bring suit under the 2002 Help America Vote Act. Restricting standing has been a centerpiece of conservative legal policy and philosophy.
A few other Rasmussen state polls are about what I'd have expected, though maybe a little greater in degree for Obama: up 13 in Oregon, which some had thought was up for grabs, but as he has a 23 point advantage among unaffiliated voters according to this survey, you can probably stick a fork in this one. Do you really need to know about a 20 point lead in NY and 17 in my own lovely and talented Nutmeg State? I didn't think so. 28 in Massachusetts? Right. Big whoop.
And The Counties
There's an interesting story on politico.com (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html) pointing to Obama leads in key counties in important swing states, including PA's suburban Bucks County, where their own survey shows a 47-41 Obama lead, VA's suburban DC historically staunchly Republican Prince William County, which is currently 50-42 Obama, as well as a 16 point 53-37 Obama lead in MO's St. Louis County (which is suburban and does not include the city of St. Louis itself), and Franklin County, OH, which is a close 45-40 Obama advantage despite the fact that John Kerry won this county by nine points in 2004. There are many young independent voters in these areas, and Obama's lead in the 30-44 age group in these counties is far more significant than the overall total. The issue according to the pollster, InsiderAdvantage, is that, as we see with the other polls we track, Obama is having great success picking up independent voters. I'm not sure how well you can extrapolate this nationwide, because the overall idea of looking at swing states, then key counties, then independent voters, then aged 30-44 may be just a little too granular really to care that much about.
Al Smith Dinner A Welcome, Funny, Gracious Relief
Last night's Al Smith Memorial Dinner benefitting Catholic Charities was the usual politico star-studded event you've come to know and love. Both McCain and Obama gave funny speeches and sounded a note of respect and admiration for each other (though when youv'e got a Cardinal Archbishop sitting between you, perhaps you need to make nice. McCain showed he knows how to play the expectations game: his final comment was a long spiel about how Obama's speech was going to be the funniest thing you've ever heard, so please expect nothing less. Obama managed to poke gentle fun at himself, his opponent, and others in the room as well, though I think the best line of the night came when doing a little "who is Barack Obama?" explanation, talking about his name: "Barack comes from my father and is Swahili for "that one," while my middle name came from someone who obviously didn't think I'd run for president;" later on when doing a bit about his deep dark secrets he sprung it on the crowd that unbeknownst to anyone, his middle name is actually "Steve"). Oh, and his shot across Giuliani's bow pointing out the ex-Mayor's crossdressing performance at a prior event and tying it in with his candidacy for the Republican nomination fight was followed with a look over to McCain and a "Tough primary, John." McCain seemed to love it. Seriously, though, it'd be nice if every voter were required to watch the two interacting at this event. Nobody would get the $@$% kicked out of him at someone's rallies any more. I've done neither of them justice, so watch them here. Obama's: http://wcbstv.com/video/?id=118841@wcbs.dayport.com
McCain: http://wcbstv.com/video/?id=118836@wcbs.dayport.com
For the whole program: http://www.c-span.org/search.aspx?For=al smith dinner
Re-Allocation Of Resources Gives The Lie To The Polls
The Republican National Committee is apparently pulling advertising from Wisconsin, while Barack Obama is going on a "red state tour" of VA, NC, and FL in the next week and the DNC is running ads in KY and VA. McCain should have Kentucky locked up, and I'm not going to put NC in Obama's bag just yet, even though the collapse of Wachovia Bank will likely cause tremendous economic turmoil in the state. That being said, the GOP is back on its haunches playing defense, and there's a real dichotomy here between polls that are tightening and the party itself which is acting like it's trying to save whatever there is to be saved, while potential 2012 candidates (notably Romney and, ahem, Crist) are running away from the campaign and Palin's pet monkey Bill Kristol is pitching her as the savior of the party. In point of fact, a McCain loss in 2008 and Palin candidacy in 2012 would spell the end of the Republican Party as we know it, though personally by that point I think she's more likely to be under indictment than anointment.
And Now A Word From Our Sponsor
Amusingly enough, given the modest foofaraw over the free cellphone tower Verizon built on Sen. McCain's Arizona ranch, while he sits on the Commerce Committee and his campaign manager is a Verizon lobbyist, Gov. Palin's speech today in Noblesville, IN is at the.....drum roll please...Verizon Wireless Music Center. Can't make this stuff up.
Joe The Liar
Well, I know I said I'd never mention Joe The Pl***er, but there are mitigating circumstances. Not that he isn't registered to vote, though that's true. Not even that he's interested in lower taxes because the state of Ohio has a property lien on him for unpaid back state taxes, though that's also true. In fact, the mitigating circumstances are that, in fact, he appears not to be a plumber at all. Yet he's trying to buy a plumbing business that nets over a quarter of a million dollars a year, you say. Well, while he told Sen. Obama he'd been a plumber for fifteen years, it turns out the neither the State of Ohio nor the Plumbers, Steamfitters and Service Mechanics Union can find him. In fact, he has no license in the state of Ohio, where he registered as an apprentice in October 2003 but apparently never completed the training. Oh, and the whole premise is also rather a taradiddle; the business is nowhere near a $250K a year endeavor. According to the Union's business manager, it's a two-man shop that's "not a thriving business." Just to throw him one bone, his name does in fact appear to be Joe. And Gordon Liddy's boys who broke into the Watergate only called themselves plumbers.
Did the GOP get played, or play and get caught? Read for yourself: http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418
This also leaves Josephine the Plumber from the old Comet commercials as the only Jo The Plumber that matters. Read here: http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2008/10/hey-mccain-what-about-josephine-the-plumber.html or view here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI_C8HB00VQ
Joe The Senator gets the Quote right: "Let me put it this way: I don't know -- the neighborhood I grew up, even the neighborhood I live in now, which is a really nice neighborhood, I don't know many plumbers who are making $250,000 a year and worried about it. We're kind of worried about Joe the fireman, Joe the policeman, Joe the real plumber with a license."
OK, I'm off to whatever it is I'm off to. See you tomorrow--and we'll know if the debate had any impact soon!
John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day
Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt. (Speech, 1936)
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