September 18, Daily Polls Remain Amorphous, Despite Slow Obamaward Shift

More modest movement in the vaguest Obama direction, though the polls party ID weighting is beginning to become more apparent. As mused on yesterday, ex-economic spokesperson Carly Fiorina appears to have been disappeared. She should be getting used to that by now. The data consistently shows that the economy is rated the most important issue by roughly half the electorate, despite the fact that what may well be a majority of Americans do not feel the last few weeks' financial crises have affected them. That being said, Rasmussen reports in another poll that consumer confidence is falling off the proverbial table. I would think that whichever candidate is able to persuade the public that he is the one who can be trusted to lead the country through this time of uncertainty will win the election.

R2K Obama 49 McCain 43 (48-44)
Rasmussen McCain 48 Obama 48 (48-47)
Gallup Obama 48 McCain 44 (47-45)
Diageo/Hotline Obama 46 McCain 42 (45-42)

Gallup points out this is the first statistically significant lead for Obama in two weeks. 1) Just. 2) Seven weeks to go, MAYBE a 20 point lead would do it. Maybe. Not four. Diageo shows that in five days the percentage of people thinking the economy is the biggest concern has grown from 36% to 44%.

I'd note that R2K includes Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, who each poll about 2%. I don't know if that's more than they'll get in real life, but I think it's probably better statistics to have them in there. As they're good enough to publish their internals, let's tear them apart a bit. They have Obama polling 85% among Democrats, compared with McCain's 90% GOP vote, which is close to where he needs to be to win. They're in a dead heat among independents in this poll as well. By ethnicity, Obama leads among Latinos in this poll 67-26, which is also getting to what he needs to win. I think this poll may overrepresent Democrats, just as I believe Rasmussen's latest weighting may overweight identificaition as Republicans. McCain's net favorables in this one are flat, while Obama is +21, Biden +18 and Palin -4; despite an across the board shift downwards in favorables for the GOP ticket in the last week, either this disparity is markedly overstated or the race isn't even close. I don't buy it. Not yet, anyway.

Looking at a few other polls, there's a Quinnipiac poll out with Obama 49, McCain 45, with both candidates gaining, taking 5 points out of undecideds. It leaves Barr and Nader out, with a generic "someone else" option, which I think is unfair. It shows a nine point lead for McCain among white voters, compared with the R2K lead of 17. The favorables are a little odd as well, with everyone being markedly positive, Obama +23, McCain +20, Biden +17,and Palin +10. This poll seems strangely partisan in both directions, somehow. I also don't buy it.

A CBS-NY TImes poll shows Obama up 48-43. Obama leads among women, including a 2% lead with white women, up 21 points from their week-earlier poll. While I'm trying to look for trends rather than at the raw data so long before the election, intuitively one or both of those data points can't be right. I seem to be saying that an awful lot lately, which implies what we already knew: this election has more variables, more uncertainties in it than any that I can remember, and it's probably even less possible to poll accurately.

SUSA has Obama up 52-44 in New Mexico, driven by a 69-28 lead among Latino voters. If true--and their state polling was the most accurate in 2004--that's a data point worth hanging on to.

Well, he's backed away from his own positions so fast this week he looks like a junkie fleeing a burning meth lab, so we'll give John McCain his own Surrogate Bon Mot Du Jour.
"The chairman of the S.E.C. serves at the appointment of the president and in my view, has betrayed the public’s trust...If I were president today, I would fire him." He hasn't won yet, so they haven't given him the Presidential Owner's Manual, but the President can't actually fire the head of an independent regulatory commission. Checks. Balances. Balances. Checks. FDR tried it once and got slapped down by the Supreme Court.

Hey, if you like this, tell your friends. I'm actually adding a couple names a day here, while those of you who know me have been far too polite to ask me to remove you. If you don't like it, tell me. Just remember my fragile male ego.

Best,

John

Herbert Hoover Quote of the Day (TM):
Let me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices and jobs.